In 2010, the international community, under the auspices of the Convention on Biological Diversity, agreed on 20 biodiversity-related "Aichi Targets" to be achieved within a decade. We provide a comprehensive mid-term assessment of progress toward these global targets using 55 indicator data sets. We projected indicator trends to 2020 using an adaptive statistical framework that incorporated the specific properties of individual time series. On current trajectories, results suggest that despite accelerating policy and management responses to the biodiversity crisis, the impacts of these efforts are unlikely to be reflected in improved trends in the state of biodiversity by 2020. We highlight areas of societal endeavor requiring additional efforts to achieve the Aichi Targets, and provide a baseline against which to assess future progress.

Whereas many land predators disappeared before their ecological roles were studied, the decline of marine apex predators is still unfolding. Large sharks in particular have experienced rapid declines over the last decades. In this study, we review the documented changes in exploited elasmobranch communities in coastal, demersal, and pelagic habitats, and synthesize the effects of sharks on their prey and wider communities. We show that the high natural diversity and abundance of sharks is vulnerable to even light fishing pressure. The decline of large predatory sharks reduces natural mortality in a range of prey, contributing to changes in abundance, distribution, and behaviour of small elasmobranchs, marine mammals, and sea turtles that have few other predators. Through direct predation and behavioural modifications, top-down effects of sharks have led to cascading changes in some coastal ecosystems. In demersal and pelagic communities, there is increasing evidence of mesopredator release, but cascading effects are more hypothetical. Here, fishing pressure on mesopredators may mask or even reverse some ecosystem effects. In conclusion, large sharks can exert strong top-down forces with the potential to shape marine communities over large spatial and temporal scales. Yet more empirical evidence is needed to test the generality of these effects throughout the ocean.

The UN Sustainable Development Goal 14 aims to "conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development". Achieving this goal will require rebuilding the marine life-support systems that deliver the many benefits society receives from a healthy ocean. In this Review we document the recovery of marine populations, habitats and ecosystems following past conservation interventions. Recovery rates across studies suggest that substantial recovery of the abundance, structure, and function of marine life could be achieved by 2050, should major pressures, including climate change, be mitigated. Rebuilding marine life represents a doable Grand Challenge for humanity, an ethical obligation, and a smart economic objective to achieve a sustainable future. The ability of the ocean to support human wellbeing is at a crossroads. The ocean currently contributes 2.5% of global GDP and provides employment to 1.5% of the global workforce 1 , with an estimated output of US$1.5 trillion in 2010, expected to double by 2030 1. And there is increased attention on the ocean as a source of food and water 2 , clean energy 1 , and as a means to mitigate climate change 3,4. At the same time, many marine species, habitats and ecosystems have suffered catastrophic declines 5-8 and climate change is further undermining ocean productivity and biodiversity 9-14 (Fig. 1). The conflict between growing human dependence on ocean resources and declining marine life under human pressures (Fig. 1) is focusing unprecedented attention on the connection between ocean conservation and human well-being 15. The UN Sustainable Development Goal 14 (SDG14 or "life below water") aims to "conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development" (https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg14). Achieving this goal will require rebuilding marine life, defined in the context of SDG14 as the life-support systems (populations, habitats, and ecosystems) that deliver the many benefits society receives from a healthy ocean 16,17. Here we show that, in addition to being a necessary goal, substantially rebuilding marine life within a human generation is largely achievable, if the required actions, prominently mitigating climate change, are deployed at scale. Slowing the decline of marine life and achieving net gains By the time the general public admired life below water through the "Undersea World of Jacques Cousteau" (1968-1976), the abundance of large marine animals was already greatly reduced 5-7,18. And the abundance of marine animals and habitats that support ecosystems services has shrunk to a fraction of what was in place when the first frameworks to conserve and sustain marine life were introduced in the 1980s (Fig. 1), to a fraction of pre-exploitation levels 5,6,19,20. Currently, at least one-third of fish stocks are overfished 21 , one-third to half of vulnerable marine habitats have been lost 8 , a substantial fraction of the coastal ocean suffers from pollution, eutrophication, oxygen d...

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower-trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Marine fish and invertebrates are shifting their regional and global distributions in response to climate change, but it is unclear whether their productivity is being affected as well. Here we tested for timevarying trends in biological productivity parameters across 262 fish stocks of 127 species in 39 large marine ecosystems and high-seas areas (hereafter LMEs). This global meta-analysis revealed widespread changes in the relationship between spawning stock size and the production of juvenile offspring (recruitment), suggesting fundamental biological change in fish stock productivity at early life stages. Across regions, we estimate that average recruitment capacity has declined at a rate approximately equal to 3% of the historical maximum per decade. However, we observed large variability among stocks and regions; for example, highly negative trends in the North Atlantic contrast with more neutral patterns in the North Pacific. The extent of biological change in each LME was significantly related to observed changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration and the intensity of historical overfishing in that ecosystem. We conclude that both environmental changes and chronic overfishing have already affected the productive capacity of many stocks at the recruitment stage of the life cycle. These results provide a baseline for ecosystem-based fisheries management and may help adjust expectations for future food production from the oceans.fisheries | population dynamics | productivity | recruitment | nonstationary processes H uman well-being is closely linked with the productivity of marine fisheries, which provide a significant source of protein for more than half of the world's population (1). However, ongoing environmental and biological changes may impact productivity through a variety of mechanisms, including larger habitat areas for temperate species (2), altered body sizes (3), food availability (4), and increased exposure to oxygen-depleted and acidic waters (5). Recent research has documented marked changes in the distributional patterns of marine species that are consistent with climate forcing (6, 7). However, the net effect of these changes on global fish stock productivity is not clearly understood. In particular, documented environmental changes (4,8,9) and the long-term consequences of overfishing (10, 11) all impose relevant but poorly constrained effects. Here we help address this issue by evaluating the evidence for empirical trends in the relation between the size of the reproductively mature population (or "spawning stock") and the annual production of juvenile offspring ("recruits") using a recently synthesized global database of stock-recruit time series (12). We then test the relation between empirical recruitment trends and regional environmental variables associated with temperature, phytoplankton abundance, and historical overfishing.Recruitment is modeled by relating the size of the spawning stock biomass to the annual production of recruits. The magnitude of annual recruitment is hi...

Fisheries exploitation has caused widespread declines in marine predators. Theory predicts that predator depletion will destabilise lower trophic levels, making natural communities more vulnerable to environmental perturbations. However, empirical evidence has been limited. Using a community matrix model, we empirically assessed trends in the stability of a multispecies coastal fish community over the course of predator depletion. Three indices of community stability (resistance, resilience and reactivity) revealed significantly decreasing stability concurrent with declining predator abundance. The trophically downgraded community exhibited weaker top-down control, leading to predator-release processes in lower trophic levels and increased susceptibility to perturbation. At the community level, our results suggest that high predator abundance acts as a stabilising force to the naturally stochastic and highly autocorrelated dynamics in low trophic species. These findings have important implications for the conservation and management of predators in marine ecosystems and provide empirical support for the theory of predatory control.

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