Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). Assessing the relative importance of CH4 in comparison to CO2 is complicated by its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and atmospheric growth rate variations over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down approach) to be 572 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 538–593, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the ensemble), of which 357 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ~ 60 % are attributed to anthropogenic sources (range 50–65 %). This total emission is 27 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the value estimated for the period 2000–2009 and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for the period 2003–2012 (Saunois et al. 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the carbon intensive scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Gidden et al., 2019). Bottom-up methods suggest larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 583–880) than top-down inversion methods, mostly because of larger estimated natural emissions from sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources. However the strength of the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, suggest that these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (~ 65 % of the global budget,
We have updated the Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS) as version 2.1. REAS 2.1 includes most major air pollutants and greenhouse gases from each year during 2000 and 2008 and following areas of Asia: East, Southeast, South, and Central Asia and the Asian part of Russia. Emissions are estimated for each country and region using updated activity data and parameters. Monthly gridded data with a 0.25 × 0.25° resolution are also provided. Asian emissions for each species in 2008 are as follows (with their growth rate from 2000 to 2008): 56.9 Tg (+34%) for SO2, 53.9 Tg (+54%) for NOx, 359.5 Tg (+34%) for CO, 68.5 Tg (+46%) for non-methane volatile organic compounds, 32.8 Tg (+17%) for NH3, 36.4 Tg (+45%) for PM10, 24.7 Tg (+42%) for PM2.5, 3.03 Tg (+35%) for black carbon, 7.72 Tg (+21%) for organic carbon, 182.2 Tg (+32%) for CH4, 5.80 Tg (+18%) for N2O, and 16.7 Pg (+59%) for CO2. By country, China and India were respectively the largest and second largest contributors to Asian emissions. Both countries also had higher growth rates in emissions than others because of their continuous increases in energy consumption, industrial activities, and infrastructure development. In China, emission mitigation measures have been implemented gradually. Emissions of SO2 in China increased from 2000 to 2006 and then began to decrease as flue-gas desulfurization was installed to large power plants. On the other hand, emissions of air pollutants in total East Asia except for China decreased from 2000 to 2008 owing to lower economic growth rates and more effective emission regulations in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Emissions from other regions generally increased from 2000 to 2008, although their relative shares of total Asian emissions are smaller than those of China and India. Tables of annual emissions by country and region broken down by sub-sector and fuel type, and monthly gridded emission data with a resolution of 0.25 × 0.25° for the major sectors are available from the following url: http://www.nies.go.jp/REAS/
2 use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector (including forest and savannah burning). Unlike the activities of the LULUCF sector, which are typically estimated top-down from less certain land-use observations, all these activities are estimated bottom-up from standard annual statistics of fuel, products, waste, crops or livestock. We present country-specific emission totals and analyse the trends and variations in emissions of the largest emitting countries together with the EU in more detail, to uncover the effect of changes in human 5 activities with time on each of the gases. The GWP-100 weighted global total GHG emission trend is predominantly determined by the global CO2 trend and in particular, by fuel markets trends, geopolitical changes and financial crises rather than population changes. We also evaluate the uncertainty in emissions for different sectors and three groups of countries (the OECD countries of 1990, the countries with economies in transition in 1990 and the remaining non-Annex I countries). Even though large progress has been made on emission 10 inventory compilation, the uncertainty in global total GHG emissions has not decreased, because of the increasing share of emissions from countries with less developed statistical infrastructure and secondly the decreasing share of emissions from the activities (e.g. coal power plants) for which relatively accurate information is available. Finally, we discuss changes in geospatial distribution with a focus on hot spots and megacities using gridded information. Data is presented online for each source category with annual and monthly 15 global emissions grid-maps of 0.1x0.1 resolution and can be freely accessed from the EDGAR website
We present a new data set of annual historical (1750 -2014) anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH 4 , NH 3 , NO X , SO 2 , NMVOC), carbonaceous aerosols (BC and OC), and CO 2 developed with the 25Community Emissions Database System (CEDS). We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emissions species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emissions species are consistently estimated using the same activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with 30 monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low-and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions uncertainty, and publication of the system as open source software. 35Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.,
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