BackgroundOnchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015.Methods and FindingsWith data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million.ConclusionsOur simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future.

The use of alternative (or complementary) treatment strategies (ATSs) i.e. differing from annual community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) is required in some African foci to eliminate onchocerciasis by 2025. ATSs include vector control, biannual or pluriannual CDTI, better timing of CDTI, community-directed treatment with combinations of currently available anthelminthics or new drugs, and 'test-and-treat' (TNT) strategies requiring diagnosis of infection and/or contraindications to treatment for decisions on who to treat with what regimen. Two TNT strategies can be considered. Loa-first TNT, designed for loiasis-endemic areas and currently being evaluated using a rapid test (LoaScope), consists of identifying individuals with levels of Loa microfilaremia associated with a risk of post-ivermectin severe adverse events to exclude them from ivermectin treatment and in treating the rest (usually >97%) of the population safely. Oncho-first TNT consists of testing community members for onchocerciasis before giving treatment (currently ivermectin or doxycycline) to those who are infected. The choice of the ATS depends on the prevalences and intensities of infection with Onchocerca volvulus and Loa loa and on the relative cost-effectiveness of the strategies for the given epidemiological situation. Modelling can help select the optimal strategies, but field evaluations to determine the relative cost-effectiveness are urgently needed.

Background. Great strides have been made toward onchocerciasis elimination by mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. Focusing on MDA-eligible areas, we investigated where the elimination goal can be achieved by 2025 by continuation of current practice (annual MDA with ivermectin) and where intensification or additional vector control is required. We did not consider areas hypoendemic for onchocerciasis with loiasis coendemicity where MDA is contraindicated.Methods. We used 2 previously published mathematical models, ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO, to simulate future trends in microfilarial prevalence for 80 different settings (defined by precontrol endemicity and past MDA frequency and coverage) under different future treatment scenarios (annual, biannual, or quarterly MDA with different treatment coverage through 2025, with or without vector control strategies), assessing for each strategy whether it eventually leads to elimination.Results. Areas with 40%-50% precontrol microfilarial prevalence and ≥10 years of annual MDA may achieve elimination with a further 7 years of annual MDA, if not achieved already, according to both models. For most areas with 70%-80% precontrol prevalence, ONCHOSIM predicts that either annual or biannual MDA is sufficient to achieve elimination by 2025, whereas EPIONCHO predicts that elimination will not be achieved even with complementary vector control.Conclusions. Whether elimination will be reached by 2025 depends on precontrol endemicity, control history, and strategies chosen from now until 2025. Biannual or quarterly MDA will accelerate progress toward elimination but cannot guarantee it by 2025 in high-endemicity areas. Long-term concomitant MDA and vector control for high-endemicity areas might be useful.

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