BackgroundLoiasis is a major obstacle to ivermectin treatment for onchocerciasis control and lymphatic filariasis elimination in central Africa. In communities with a high level of loiasis endemicity, there is a significant risk of severe adverse reactions to ivermectin treatment. Information on the geographic distribution of loiasis in Africa is urgently needed but available information is limited. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) undertook large scale mapping of loiasis in 11 potentially endemic countries using a rapid assessment procedure for loiasis (RAPLOA) that uses a simple questionnaire on the history of eye worm.Methodology/Principal FindingsRAPLOA surveys were done in a spatial sample of 4798 villages covering an area of 2500×3000 km centred on the heartland of loiasis in Africa. The surveys showed high risk levels of loiasis in 10 countries where an estimated 14.4 million people live in high risk areas. There was a strong spatial correlation among RAPLOA data, and kriging was used to produce spatially smoothed contour maps of the interpolated prevalence of eye worm and the predictive probability that the prevalence exceeds 40%.Conclusion/SignificanceThe contour map of eye worm prevalence provides the first global map of loiasis based on actual survey data. It shows a clear distribution with two zones of hyper endemicity, large areas that are free of loiasis and several borderline or intermediate zones. The surveys detected several previously unknown hyperendemic foci, clarified the distribution of loiasis in the Central African Republic and large parts of the Republic of Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo for which hardly any information was available, and confirmed known loiasis foci. The new maps of the prevalence of eye worm and the probability that the prevalence exceeds the risk threshold of 40% provide critical information for ivermectin treatment programs among millions of people in Africa.

BackgroundThe original aim of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) was to control onchocerciasis as a public health problem in 20 African countries. In order to identify all high risk areas where ivermectin treatment was needed to achieve control, APOC used Rapid Epidemiological Mapping of Onchocerciasis (REMO). REMO involved spatial sampling of villages to be surveyed, and examination of 30 to 50 adults per village for palpable onchocercal nodules. REMO has now been virtually completed and we report the results in two articles. A companion article reports the delineation of high risk areas based on expert analysis. The present article reports the results of a geostatistical analysis of the REMO data to map endemicity levels and estimate the number infected.MethodsA model-based geostatistical analysis of the REMO data was undertaken to generate high-resolution maps of the predicted prevalence of nodules and of the probability that the true nodule prevalence exceeds the high risk threshold of 20%. The number infected was estimated by converting nodule prevalence to microfilaria prevalence, and multiplying the predicted prevalence for each location with local data on population density. The geostatistical analysis included the nodule palpation data for 14,473 surveyed villages.ResultsThe generated map of onchocerciasis endemicity levels, as reflected in the prevalence of nodules, is a significant advance with many new endemic areas identified. The prevalence of nodules was > 20% over an area of 2.5 million km2 with an estimated population of 62 million people. The results were consistent with the delineation of high risk areas of the expert analysis except for borderline areas where the prevalence fluctuated around 20%. It is estimated that 36 million people would have been infected in the APOC countries by 2011 if there had been no ivermectin treatment.ConclusionsThe map of onchocerciasis endemicity levels has proven very valuable for onchocerciasis control in the APOC countries. Following the recent shift to onchocerciasis elimination, the map continues to play an important role in planning treatment, evaluating impact and predicting treatment end dates in relation to local endemicity levels.

BackgroundOnchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015.Methods and FindingsWith data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million.ConclusionsOur simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future.

BackgroundAfter more than a decade of community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) in Centre and Littoral Regions of Cameroon, onchocerciasis endemicity was still high in some communities according to the 2011 epidemiological evaluations. Some corrective measures were undertaken to improve the CDTI process and therefore reduce the burden of the disease. The objective of the present study was to assess the progress made towards the elimination of onchocerciasis in the Centre 1 and Littoral 2 CDTI projects where the worst performances were found in 2011. To this end, a cross-sectional survey was conducted in April 2015 in eight communities in two health districts (HD), Bafia in Centre 1 and Yabassi in Littoral 2, chosen because assessed at baseline and in 2011. All volunteers living for at least five years in the community, aged five years or more, underwent clinical and parasitological examinations. Individual compliance to ivermectin treatment was also assessed. Analyses of data were weighted proportionally to age and gender distribution in the population.ResultsIn the Bafia and Yabassi HD, 514 and 242 individuals were examined with a mean age of 35.1 (standard deviation, SD: 20.7) and 44.6 (SD: 16.3) years, respectively. In the Bafia HD, the weighted prevalences varied from 24.4 to 57.0 % for microfilaridermia and from 3.6 to 37.4 % for nodule presence across the surveyed communities. The community microfilarial load (CMFL), expressed in microfilariae/skin snip (mf/ss), significantly dropped from 20.84–114.50 mf/ss in 1991 to 0.31–1.62 mf/ss in 2015 in all the surveyed communities. In the Yabassi HD, the weighted prevalences varied from 12.3 to 59.3 % for microfilaridermia and from 1.5 to 3.7 % for nodule presence across the surveyed communities, while a significant drop was observed in CMFL, from 20.40–28.50 mf/ss in 1999 to 0.48–1.74 mf/ss in 2015. The 2014 weighted therapeutic coverage of participants varied from 65.8 % (95 % CI: 58.4–73.2) in Yabassi HD, to 68.0 % (95 % CI: 63.3–72.7) in Bafia HD, with important variations among communities.ConclusionsAfter more than 15 years of CDTI, onchocerciasis is still mesoendemic in the surveyed communities. Further studies targeting therapeutic coverage, socio-anthropological considerations of CDTI implementation and entomological studies would bring more insights to the persistence of the disease as observed in the present study.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1868-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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BackgroundThe African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) was created to control onchocerciasis as a public health problem in 20 African countries. Its main strategy is community directed treatment with ivermectin. In order to identify all high risk areas where ivermectin treatment was needed, APOC used Rapid Epidemiological Mapping of Onchocerciasis (REMO). REMO has now been virtually completed and we report the results in two articles. The present article reports the mapping of high risk areas where onchocerciasis was a public health problem. The companion article reports the results of a geostatistical analysis of the REMO data to map endemicity levels and estimate the number infected.MethodsREMO consists of three stages: exclusion of areas that are unsuitable for the vector, selection of sample villages to be surveyed in each river basin, and examination of 30 to 50 adults for the presence of palpable onchocercal nodules in each selected village. The survey results and other relevant information were processed in a geographical information system. A panel of experts interpreted the data taking the river-based sampling into account and delineated high risk areas where the prevalence of nodules is greater than 20%.ResultsUnsuitable areas were identified in eight countries. In the remaining areas surveys were done in a total of 14,473 sample villages in which more than half a million people were examined. High-risk areas were identified in 18 APOC countries, ranging from small isolated foci to a vast contiguous endemic area of 2 million km2 running across seven countries. In five countries the high risk area covered more than 48% of the total surface area, and 31% to 48% of the population. It is estimated that 86 million people live in high risk areas in the APOC countries.ConclusionsThe REMO maps have played a significant role in onchocerciasis control in the 20 APOC countries. All high-risk areas where onchocerciasis used to be a serious public health problem have been clearly delineated. This led to the creation of community-directed treatment projects that by 2012 were providing annual ivermectin treatment to over 80 million people.

BackgroundThe initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions.Methods and FindingsPre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the OCP epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. These 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (B-MBG) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in West Africa prior to the commencement of the OCP. Uncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. The mean Pearson’s correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (average magnitude of difference between observed and estimated values) was 12.2%. Within OCP boundaries, 17.8 million people were deemed to have been at risk, 7.55 million to have been infected, and mean microfilarial prevalence to have been 45% (range: 2–90%) in 1975.Conclusions and SignificanceThis is the first map of initial onchocerciasis prevalence in West Africa using B-MBG. Important environmental predictors of infection prevalence were identified and used in a model out-performing those without spatial random effects or environmental covariates. Results may be compared with recent epidemiological mapping efforts to find areas of persisting transmission. These methods may be extended to areas where data are sparse, and may be used to help inform the feasibility of elimination with current and novel tools.

Background. Great strides have been made toward onchocerciasis elimination by mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. Focusing on MDA-eligible areas, we investigated where the elimination goal can be achieved by 2025 by continuation of current practice (annual MDA with ivermectin) and where intensification or additional vector control is required. We did not consider areas hypoendemic for onchocerciasis with loiasis coendemicity where MDA is contraindicated.Methods. We used 2 previously published mathematical models, ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO, to simulate future trends in microfilarial prevalence for 80 different settings (defined by precontrol endemicity and past MDA frequency and coverage) under different future treatment scenarios (annual, biannual, or quarterly MDA with different treatment coverage through 2025, with or without vector control strategies), assessing for each strategy whether it eventually leads to elimination.Results. Areas with 40%-50% precontrol microfilarial prevalence and ≥10 years of annual MDA may achieve elimination with a further 7 years of annual MDA, if not achieved already, according to both models. For most areas with 70%-80% precontrol prevalence, ONCHOSIM predicts that either annual or biannual MDA is sufficient to achieve elimination by 2025, whereas EPIONCHO predicts that elimination will not be achieved even with complementary vector control.Conclusions. Whether elimination will be reached by 2025 depends on precontrol endemicity, control history, and strategies chosen from now until 2025. Biannual or quarterly MDA will accelerate progress toward elimination but cannot guarantee it by 2025 in high-endemicity areas. Long-term concomitant MDA and vector control for high-endemicity areas might be useful.