This study addresses the question of whether the adaptive market hypothesis provides a better description of the behaviour of emerging stock market like India. We employed linear and nonlinear methods to evaluate the hypothesis empirically. The linear tests show a cyclical pattern in linear dependence suggesting that the Indian stock market switched between periods of efficiency and inefficiency. In contrast, the results from nonlinear tests reveal a strong evidence of nonlinearity in returns throughout the sample period with a sign of tapering magnitude of nonlinear dependence in the recent period. The findings suggest that Indian stock market is moving towards efficiency. The results provide additional insights on association between financial crises, foreign portfolio investments and inefficiency.JEL codesG14; G12; C12

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The surge of capital inflow into emerging markets since the 1990s has attracted much research, but capital flight from these economies has received scant attention in research and policy debates, despite its severe implications. The present study attempts to address the issue of capital flight and gap in the literature. Our estimates show a steep increase in the magnitude of capital flight from India since 2003, and empirical results suggest that the significant determinants of capital flight are GDP and exchange rate. We find that higher interest rates discourage capital flight; while keeping interest rates high may partially restrict capital flight, it is infeasible, and may impede future economic growth. Our findings suggest the need for interventions and changes in the current policy framework to improve investment opportunities for residents and arrest capital flight.

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