Climate warming challenges animals to advance their timing of reproduction [1], but many animals appear to be unable to advance at the same rate as their food species [2, 3]. As a result, mismatches can arise between the moment of largest food requirements for their offspring and peak food availability [4-6], with important fitness consequences [7]. For long-distance migrants, adjustment of phenology to climate warming may be hampered by their inability to predict the optimal timing of arrival at the breeding grounds from their wintering grounds [8]. Arrival can be advanced if birds accelerate migration by reducing time on stopover sites [9, 10], but a recent study suggests that most long-distance migrants are on too tight a schedule to do so [11]. This may be different for capital-breeding migrants, which use stopovers not only to fuel migration but also to acquire body stores needed for reproduction [12-14]. By combining multiple years of tracking and reproduction data, we show that a long-distance migratory bird (the barnacle goose, Branta leucopsis) accelerates its 3,000 km spring migration to advance arrival on its rapidly warming Arctic breeding grounds. As egg laying has advanced much less than arrival, they still encounter a phenological mismatch that reduces offspring survival. A shift toward using more local resources for reproduction suggests that geese first need to refuel body stores at the breeding grounds after accelerated migration. Although flexibility in body store use allows migrants to accelerate migration, this cannot solve the time constraint they are facing under climate warming.

Within three decades, the barnacle goose population wintering on the European mainland has dramatically increased in numbers and extended its breeding range. The expansion has occurred both within the Arctic as well as by the colonization of temperate areas. Studies of performance of individuals in expanding populations provide information on how well species can adapt to novel environments and global warming. We, therefore, studied the availability of high quality food as well as timing of reproduction, wing moult, fledgling production and postfledging survival of individually marked geese in three recently established populations: one Arctic (Barents Sea) and two temperate (Baltic, North Sea). In the Barents Sea population, timing of hatching was synchronized with the peak in food availability and there was strong stabilizing selection. Although birds in the Baltic and North Sea populations bred 6-7 weeks earlier than Arctic birds, timing of hatching was late in relation to the peak in food availability, and there was moderate to strong directional selection for early breeding. In the Baltic, absolute timing of egg laying advanced considerably over the 20-year study period, but advanced little relative to spring phenology, and directional selection on lay date increased over time. Wing moult of adults started only 2-4 weeks earlier in the temperate populations than in the Arctic. Synchronization between fledging of young and end of wing moult decreased in the temperate populations. Arctic-breeding geese may gradually accumulate body stores from the food they encounter during spring migration, which allows them to breed relatively early and their young to use the peak of the Arctic food resources. By contrast, temperate-breeding birds are not able to acquire adequate body stores from local resources early enough, that is before the quality of food for their young starts to decrease. When global temperatures continue to rise, Arctic-breeding barnacle geese might encounter similar problems.

Summary 1.Since the early 1990s, an increasing proportion of barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis , bound for breeding sites in the Russian Arctic delay their departure from the wintering quarters in the Wadden Sea by 4 weeks. These late-migrating geese skip spring stopover sites in the Baltic traditionally used by the entire population. 2. Individual geese from an arctic colony tracked by satellite or light-level geolocators during spring migration in 2004 and 2005 predominantly followed the new strategy, but a minority still maintained the traditional pattern. Despite a spread of more than 50 days in departure date from the Wadden Sea, both early and late departing females laid their eggs within the short time-window conferring breeding success. 3. The spread of these new migration routines coincided with a strong increase of overall numbers and the exploitation of new spring staging resources in the Wadden Sea. Counts from Estonia demonstrate that numbers have levelled off recently at the Baltic staging sites, suggesting that the capacity of these staging sites in spring has been reached. Although onset of spring affects migratory timing in barnacle geese, it cannot explain the observed delay in departure from the wintering grounds. 4. We hypothesize that the new migratory strategy has evolved in response to increased competition for food at spring staging sites in the Baltic. According to an analytical model of optimal migration, the geese should skip the Baltic whenever the energy deposition rate falls below 88% of the Wadden Sea value.

The Arctic is entering a new ecological state, with alarming consequences for humanity. Animal-borne sensors offer a window into these changes. Although substantial animal tracking data from the Arctic and subarctic exist, most are difficult to discover and access. Here, we present the new Arctic Animal Movement Archive (AAMA), a growing collection of more than 200 standardized terrestrial and marine animal tracking studies from 1991 to the present. The AAMA supports public data discovery, preserves fundamental baseline data for the future, and facilitates efficient, collaborative data analysis. With AAMA-based case studies, we document climatic influences on the migration phenology of eagles, geographic differences in the adaptive response of caribou reproductive phenology to climate change, and species-specific changes in terrestrial mammal movement rates in response to increasing temperature.