Arctic Geese Tune Migration to a Warming Climate but Still Suffer from a Phenological Mismatch

Lameris, Thomas K.; Jeugd, Henk P. van der; Eichhorn, Götz; Dokter, Adriaan M.; Bouten, W.; Boom, Michiel P.; Litvin, Konstantin E.; Ens, Bruno J.; Nolet, Bart A.

doi:10.1016/j.cub.2018.05.077

Cited by 97 publications

(155 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Brant have also advanced spring arrival on the CRD (0.14 days/year), although slightly less rapidly than snow geese and white‐fronted geese (Ward et al, ). We do not know whether changes in arrival chronology reflect a more rapid pace of migration, nor whether physiological condition of geese upon arrival has changed as a result (Lameris et al, ). The particularly early arrival of white‐fronted geese on the nesting area could serve to buffer the effects of advancing phenology, as currently they arrive upward of three weeks before the onset of suitable nesting conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spring temperature, migration chronology, and nutrient allocation to eggs in three species of arctic‐nesting geese: Implications for resilience to climate warming

Hupp

Ward

Soto

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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The macronutrients that Arctic herbivores invest in their offspring are derived from endogenous reserves of fat and protein (capital) that females build prior to the period of investment or from foods they consume concurrently with investment (income). The relative contribution from each source can be influenced by temporal and environmental constraints on a female's ability to forage on Arctic breeding areas. Warming temperatures and advancing Arctic phenology may alter those constraints. From 2011 to 2014, we examined relationships among spring temperature, timing of migration and reproduction, and the sources of nutrients females deposited in eggs for three sympatric species of geese that nested in northern Alaska. Compared to lesser snow geese (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) and greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons frontalis), black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) were more likely to initiate follicle development during migration, resulting in fewer days between their arrival in the Arctic and the onset of incubation and requiring a relatively greater capital investment in eggs. Delaying follicle development until after their arrival in the Arctic provided snow geese and white-fronted geese an opportunity to forage near their nesting area and to deposit exogenous nutrients in eggs. With warmer spring temperatures, brant invested more capital in eggs, but snow geese invested less capital. Brant likely used capital to meet costs associated with earlier onset of follicle development when phenology was advanced, whereas snow geese used capital to compensate for poor foraging conditions during colder Arctic springs. Global warming is likely to reduce the quality of lower latitude marine habitats where brant acquire endogenous reserves and advancing Arctic phenology may increase their reliance on those reserves during reproduction. Near-term warming in northern Alaska may improve foraging conditions and favor the reproductive strategies of some herbivores such as snow geese and white-fronted geese that mainly invest Arctic nutrients in their offspring.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spring temperature, migration chronology, and nutrient allocation to eggs in three species of arctic‐nesting geese: Implications for resilience to climate warming

Hupp

Ward

Soto

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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“…To be able to assess the midpoint of snowmelt (50% snow cover, Lameris et al . ), the snow cover estimates between 20 February and 26 June 2017 were linearly interpolated between points to attain the rate of change in daily snow cover percentage (Lameris et al . ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…), the snow cover estimates between 20 February and 26 June 2017 were linearly interpolated between points to attain the rate of change in daily snow cover percentage (Lameris et al . ). Because geese using both flyways aggregated at staging areas south of 44°N, between 44 and 52°N, and north of 52°N (see Fig.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Overlaying the movement range upon the MODIS image enabled the extent of snow cover for a given date to be obtained by dividing the number of snow pixels by the total number of pixels retrieved. To be able to assess the midpoint of snowmelt (50% snow cover, Lameris et al 2018), the snow cover estimates between 20 February and 26 June 2017 were linearly interpolated between points to attain the rate of change in daily snow cover percentage (Lameris et al 2018). Because geese using both flyways aggregated at staging areas south of 44°N, between 44 and 52°N, and north of 52°N (see Fig.…”

Section: Remote Sensing Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Does snowmelt constrain spring migration progression in sympatric wintering Arctic‐nesting geese? Results from a Far East Asia telemetry study

Fang

Wang

et al. 2019

Ibis

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Telemetry data from sympatric Eastern Tundra Bean Geese Anser serrirostris captured on their winter quarters in the Yangtze River Floodplain, China, tracked to two discrete breeding areas (the Anadyr Region (AR) at 65°N and Central Russian Arctic (CRA) at 75°N) showed that, despite longer migration distance (6300 vs. 5300 km), AR geese reached their destination 23 days earlier than CRA geese as a result of increasingly delayed date of 50% snow cover along the route of CRA geese (based on satellite imagery data). Both groups arrived at breeding areas 8–9 days prior to the local date of 50% snow cover thaw, suggesting optimal timing of arrival for subsequent reproduction. Despite small sample sizes from one season of tracking, these intra‐specific data are the first to suggest that, in time‐limited Arctic‐nesting geese, snowmelt conditions regulated the individual progress and duration of spring migration along the flyway to coincide with arrival at optimal spring conditions on breeding areas.

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“…(3) Identify the critical drivers of population dynamics that are occurring during other stages of the annual cycle but leading to reversible state effects that carry over to affect shorebirds during their breeding season in the Arctic (Studds and Marra , Lameris et al. , Murray et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates

Kwon

Weiser

Lanctot

et al. 2019

Ecological Monographs

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Responses to climate change can vary across functional groups and trophic levels, leading to a temporal decoupling of trophic interactions or “phenological mismatches.” Despite a growing number of single‐species studies that identified phenological mismatches as a nearly universal consequence of climate change, we have a limited understanding of the spatial variation in the intensity of this phenomenon and what influences this variation. In this study, we tested for geographic patterns in phenological mismatches between six species of shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at 10 sites spread across ~13° latitude and ~84° longitude in the Arctic over three years. At each site, we quantified the phenological mismatch between shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at (1) an individual‐nest level, as the difference in days between the seasonal peak in food and the peak demand by chicks, and (2) a population level, as the overlapped area under fitted curves for total daily biomass of invertebrates and dates of the peak demand by chicks. We tested whether the intensity of past climatic change observed at each site corresponded with the extent of phenological mismatch and used structural equation modeling to test for causal relationships among (1) environmental factors, including geographic location and current climatic conditions, (2) the timing of invertebrate emergence and the breeding phenology of shorebirds, and (3) the phenological mismatch between the two trophic levels. The extent of phenological mismatch varied more among different sites than among different species within each site. A greater extent of phenological mismatch at both the individual‐nest and population levels coincided with changes in the timing of snowmelt as well as the potential dissociation of long‐term snow phenology from changes in temperature. The timing of snowmelt also affected the shape of the food and demand curves, which determined the extent of phenological mismatch at the population level. Finally, we found larger mismatches at more easterly longitudes, which may be affecting the population dynamics of shorebirds, as two of our study species show regional population declines in only the eastern part of their range. This suggests that phenological mismatches may be resulting in demographic consequences for Arctic‐nesting birds.

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Arctic Geese Tune Migration to a Warming Climate but Still Suffer from a Phenological Mismatch

Cited by 97 publications

References 45 publications

Spring temperature, migration chronology, and nutrient allocation to eggs in three species of arctic‐nesting geese: Implications for resilience to climate warming

Spring temperature, migration chronology, and nutrient allocation to eggs in three species of arctic‐nesting geese: Implications for resilience to climate warming

Does snowmelt constrain spring migration progression in sympatric wintering Arctic‐nesting geese? Results from a Far East Asia telemetry study

Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates

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