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This study examines the effects of the exchange rate and income on Turkish tourism trade balance (TB) using quarterly data for the period 1998–2011. The authors use tourism trade-weighted exchange rate indices and foreign income derived from country-based tourism trade. They employ Johansen’s maximum likelihood technique to estimate the long-run effects of the exchange rate and income on tourism, and employ an error correction model to analyse the short-run effects. The empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining tourism TB in the long run. The exchange rate and foreign income positively affect the TB, while domestic income negatively influences it. In the short-run, however, domestic income is the only significant factor. The authors also find no evidence of a J-curve effect in the Turkish tourism TB. These findings are robust to using nominal values.

Abstract. The western part of North Anatolian Fault (NAF) bifurcates around Mudurnu into two fault segments: northern and southern branch. The latter bifurcates again at west of Pamukova and creates middle strand. This study aimed to analyze crustal movement along the middle strand near Iznik which is considered as inactive fault. We focused on a microgeodetic network called General Command of MappingIstanbul Technical University (GCM-ITU) network around this segment. In order to obtain displacement values, five campaigns performed on the network which were used in the study. The displacements of the stations were estimated relative to the fixed stations located at the south of the network. The coordinates of the stations were calculated from the triangulation measurements realized in 1941 and 1963 , trilateration measurements in 1981 , and GPS campaigns in 2004. Then, mean displacements of the network ranging between 7 mm/yr and 18 mm/yr were obtained for these years.In the second part of the study, the GPS data were reprocessed by adding three stations from Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET). Details of MAGNET can be found Ergintav et al. (2002). Estimated displacements were ranging between 3 mm/yr and 13 mm/yr for 2004 and 2007. TUBI station of IGS network was taken as stable.

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Specific factors model, Wages, Terms of trade, Elasticity of substitution, F1, F16,

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