An interregional, multi-output, normalized restricted-equilibrium model of field-crop agriculture is estimated within the context of a multistage, programming-based, system estimation procedure. Implicit, total economic-cost functions endogenize behavioral, opportunity adjustment costs of fixed and allocatable land and water resources. Crop-specific, Marshallian water-demand elasticities are estimated for restricted and unrestricted groundwater substitution environments, and decomposed by water source. Elasticities are inelastic, but water-price policy reform can be an effective water-conservation policy tool when groundwater use is unrestricted. When groundwater use is restricted, effective conservation policy requires more dramatic water-price policy reform. Copyright 1997, Oxford University Press.
We estimated the economic benefits resulting from controlling soybean aphid infestation by using a multi-regional competitive dynamic equilibrium model. Results indicate that the reduction of soybean production resulting from a soybean aphid infestation is largely absorbed by reducing soybean exports, due to the higher price elasticity of export demand compared to domestic demand. Producer benefits resulting from controlling soybean aphids would increase by between $949 million and $1.623 billion in ten years under various scenarios. Results also suggest that it is economically more efficient to control soybean aphids when the rate of intrinsic growth is relatively lower, the supply price elasticity of soybean acreage is relatively more elastic, and insecticide treatment costs per acre are lower. However, if the discovery of the gene Rag-1 (TF04048) leads to new cultivars that withstand the soybean aphid, our estimates will overestimate the actual damages. Even so, our analysis demonstrates that it is critical to control soybean aphids early in their infestation cycle to avoid a rapid increase in damages.
Changing water demands induced through climate change and a growing biofuel energy sector throughout the western States are expected to increase pressures on the present allocation mechanisms for an increasingly scarce resource, raising uncertainty about the sustainability of irrigated agriculture in the West. In this paper, we first present the policy motivation for examining continued producer adoption of water conserving irrigation production systems as a foundation for providing a sustainable future for western irrigated agriculture. Second, we summarize the historical transitions that help to define the adjustment path to increased sustainability for the sector. While western irrigated agriculture is on a path toward greater sustainability, evidence suggests that the sustainability goal has not been fully attained. Third, we develop a new conceptual framework for groundwater management that endogenizes both per acre applied water and an acreage‐based technology adoption relationship within a normative, dynamic‐optimization model for groundwater irrigated agriculture. The framework models producer adoption decisions under uncertainty while accounting for the influence of irrigation technology as a quasi‐fixed input, i.e., the influence of asset fixity on producer adoption decisions. In this model, total crop production is based on consumptive use of irrigation water while the cost side is based on total applied water.
L’évolution de la demande en eau que suscitent le changement climatique et l’essor du secteur des biocarburants dans l’Ouest américain devrait faire monter les pressions sur les mécanismes actuels d’allocation d’une ressource de plus en plus limitée, soulevant ainsi de l’incertitude quant à la viabilité de l’agriculture irriguée dans cette région. Dans le présent article, nous avons tout d’abord présenté la motivation politique pour examiner l’adoption soutenue, de la part des producteurs agricoles, de systèmes de production irriguée axés sur l’économie de l’eau comme élément permettant d’assurer un avenir durable pour l’agriculture irriguée. Nous avons ensuite résumé les transitions historiques qui aident à définir les mesures à prendre pour accroître la viabilité du secteur. Bien que l’agriculture irriguée dans l’Ouest américain soit sur la voie d’une viabilité accrue, les données disponibles autorisent à penser que l’objectif de la viabilité n’a pas été pleinement atteint. Enfin, nous avons élaboré un nouveau cadre conceptuel pour la gestion de l’eau souterraine qui endogénise le lien entre l’eau utilisée à l’acre et l’adoption d’une technologie fondée sur la superficie dans le cadre d’un modèle d’optimisation dynamique normatif pour l’agriculture irriguée à partir des eaux souterraines. Le cadre conceptuel modélise les décisions d’adoption du producteur en présence d’incertitude tout en tenant compte de l’influence des technologies d’irrigation comme intrants quasi fixes, c’est‐à‐dire, l’influence de la fixité des actifs sur les décisions d’adoption du producteur. Dans ce modèle, la produc...
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