Timing of germination can strongly influence plant fitness by affecting seedling survival and by having cascading effects on later life-history traits. In seasonal environments, the period favorable for seedling establishment and growth is limited, and timing of germination is likely to be under stabilizing selection because of conflicting selection through survival and fecundity. Moreover, optimal germination time may vary among genotypes because of inherent differences in later life-history traits. METHODS: To examine how germination time affects survival, fecundity, and the relative fitness of two genotypes differing in time to first flower, we conducted a field experiment in an Italian population of the winter annual Arabidopsis thaliana, in which seedling establishment occurs mainly in November. We transplanted seedlings of the local genotype and of a Swedish genotype monthly from August to December and monitored survival and fecundity. RESULTS: Only seedlings transplanted in November and December survived until reproduction, and fitness of the November cohort was 35 times higher than that of the December cohort, indicating strong stabilizing selection on timing of germination. There was no evidence of conflicting selection: seedling survival, adult survival, and fecundity were all highest in the November cohort. Moreover, the relative fitness of the two genotypes did not differ significantly between cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The very narrow window of opportunity for seedling establishment was related to rapid seasonal changes in soil moisture and temperature, suggesting that rate of seasonal change is an important aspect to consider for understanding spatiotemporal variation in selection on phenological traits.

The timing of germination is a key life‐history trait in plants, which is strongly affected by the strength of seed dormancy. Continental‐wide genetic variation in seed dormancy has been related to differences in climate and the timing of conditions suitable for seedling establishment. However, for predictions of adaptive potential and consequences of climatic change, information is needed regarding the extent to which seed dormancy varies within climatic regions and the factors driving such variation. We quantified dormancy of seeds produced by 17 Italian and 28 Fennoscandian populations of Arabidopsis thaliana when grown in the greenhouse and at two field sites in Italy and Sweden. To identify possible drivers of among‐population variation in seed dormancy, we examined the relationship between seed dormancy and climate at the site of population origin, and between seed dormancy and flowering time. Seed dormancy was on average stronger in the Italian compared to the Fennoscandian populations, but also varied widely within both regions. Estimates of seed dormancy in the three maternal environments were positively correlated. Among Fennoscandian populations, seed dormancy tended to increase with increasing summer temperature and decreasing precipitation at the site of population origin. In the smaller sample of Italian populations, no significant association was detected between mean seed dormancy and climate at the site of origin. The correlation between population mean seed dormancy and flowering time was weak and not statistically significant within regions. The correlation between seed dormancy and climatic factors in Fennoscandia suggests that at least some of the among‐population variation is adaptive and that climate change will affect selection on this trait. The weak correlation between population mean seed dormancy and flowering time indicates that the two traits can evolve independently.

Premise Climate warming has altered the start and end of growing seasons in temperate regions. Ultimately, these changes occur at the individual level, but little is known about how previous seasonal life‐history events, temperature, and plant‐resource state simultaneously influence the spring and autumn phenology of plant individuals. Methods We studied the relationships between the timing of leaf‐out and shoot senescence over 3 years in a natural population of the long‐lived understory herb Lathyrus vernus and investigated the effects of spring temperature, plant size, reproductive status, and grazing on spring and autumn phenology. Results The timing of leaf‐out and senescence were consistent within individuals among years. Leaf‐out and senescence were not correlated with each other within years. Larger plants leafed out and senesced later, and size had no effect on growing season length. Reproductive plants leafed out earlier and had longer growing seasons than nonreproductive plants. Grazing had no detectable effects on phenology. Colder spring temperatures delayed senescence in two of three study years. Conclusions The timing of seasonal events, such as leaf‐out and senescence in plants can be expressed largely independently within and among seasons and are influenced by different factors. Growing season start and length can often be dependent on plant condition and reproductive status. Knowledge about the drivers of growing season length of individuals is essential to more accurately predict species and community responses to environmental variation.

The timing of germination is a key life-history trait in plants, which is strongly affected by the strength of seed dormancy. Continental-wide variation in seed dormancy has been related to differences in climate and the timing of conditions suitable for seedling establishment. However, for predictions of adaptive potential and consequences of climatic change, information is needed regarding the extent to which seed dormancy varies within climatic regions and the factors driving such variation We planted 17 Italian and 28 Fennoscandian populations of Arabidopsis thaliana in the greenhouse and at two field sites in Italy and Sweden. To identify possible drivers of among-population variation in seed dormancy, we examined the relationship between seed dormancy and climate at the sites where populations were originally sampled. Seed dormancy was on average stronger in the Italian compared to the Fennoscandian populations, but also varied widely within both regions. Estimates of seed dormancy in the three maternal environments were positively correlated, but seeds had on average stronger dormancy when produced in the greenhouse than at the two field sites. Among Fennoscandian populations, seed dormancy tended to increase with increasing summer temperature and decreasing precipitation at the site of origin. In the smaller sample of Italian populations, no significant association was detected between mean seed dormancy and climate at the site of origin. The correlation between seed dormancy and climatic factors in Fennoscandia suggests that at least some of the among-population variation is adaptive and that climate change will affect selection on this trait.

The timing of different life history events are often correlated, and selection might only rarely be exerted independently on the timing of a single event. In plants, phenotypic selection has often been shown to favour earlier flowering. However, little is known about to what extent this selection acts directly vs. indirectly via vegetative phenology, and if selection on the two traits is correlational. We estimated direct, indirect and correlational phenotypic selection on vegetative and reproductive phenology over three years for the perennial herb Lathyrus vernus. Direct selection favoured earlier flowering and shorter timespans between leaf-out and flowering in all years. However, early flowering was associated with early leaf-out, and the direction of selection on leaf-out day varied among years. As a result, selection on leaf-out weakened selection for early flowering in one of the study years. We found no evidence of correlational selection. Our results highlight the importance of including temporally correlated traits when exploring selection on the phenology of seasonal events.