We present our assessment of CASP12 modeling efforts for targets with no obvious templates of high sequence/structure similarity in the PDB, that is for evaluation units of the free modeling (FM) and free modeling/template‐based modeling (FM/TBM) categories. Models were clustered and ranked using the Global Distance Test‐Total Score and 5 additional metrics developed in previous CASP rounds, producing short lists of models that were subject to visual inspection in comparison to the target structures. The whole procedure was implemented as a web app that facilitates model selection and visual inspection, and could become useful to facilitate and standardize future assessments. We describe cases of (1) targets with remarkably good predictions, (2) targets whose models captured some global shape and topology features, and (3) targets for which models fail to capture even coarse features. We note that despite this CASP being among the most challenging ones, a measurable improvement of the top predictions is apparent, that we attribute to the emergence of accurate contact prediction methods and the increased number of available sequences. We also briefly discuss current limitations in tertiary structure prediction exemplified by CASP12 targets. Overall, the Baker, Zhang, and Lee manual groups and servers were identified as the top global performing groups.
We present our assessment of tertiary structure predictions for hard targets in Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction round 13 (CASP13). The analysis includes (a) assignment and discussion of best models through scores‐aided visual inspection of models for each evaluation unit (EU); (b) ranking of predictors resulting from this evaluation and from global scores; and (c) evaluation of progress, state of the art, and current limitations of protein structure prediction. We witness a sizable improvement in tertiary structure prediction building on the progress observed from CASP11 to CASP12, with (a) top models reaching backbone RMSD <3 å for several EUs of size <150 residues, contributed by many groups; (b) at least one model that roughly captures global topology for all EUs, probably unprecedented in this track of CASP; and (c) even quite good models for full, unsplit targets. Better structure predictions are brought about mainly by improved residue‐residue contact predictions, and since this CASP also by distance predictions, achieved through state‐of‐the‐art machine learning methods which also progressed to work with slightly shallower alignments compared to CASP12. As we reach a new realm of tertiary structure prediction quality, new directions are proposed and explored for future CASPs: (a) dropping splitting into EUs, (b) rethinking difficulty metrics probably in terms of contact and distance predictions, (c) assessing also side chains for models of high backbone accuracy, and (d) assessing residue‐wise and possibly residue‐residue quality estimates.
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