This study evaluates the potential circularity of PET, PE and PP flows in Europe, based on dynamic material flow analysis (MFA), considering product lifetimes, demand growth rates and quality reductions of recycled plastic (downcycling). The circularity was evaluated on a baseline scenario, representing 2016 conditions, and on prospective scenarios representing key circularity enhancing initiatives, including: i) maintaining constant plastic consumption, ii) managing waste plastic exports in the EU, iii) design-forrecycling initiatives, iv) improved collection and v) improved recovery and reprocessing. Low recycling rates (RR, 13-20%) and dependence on virgin plastic, representing 85-90% of the annual plastic demand, was demonstrated after 50 years in the baseline. Limited improvements were related to the individual scenarios, insufficient to meet existing recycling targets. However, by combining initiatives, recycling rates above 55%, where 75-90% was recycled in a closed-loop, were demonstrated. Moreover, 40-65% of the annual demand could potentially be covered by recycled plastic. Maintaining a constant plastic demand overtime was crucial, in order to reduce the absolute dependence on virgin plastic, which was not reflected by the RR. Thus, focusing strictly on RRs, and even whether and to which extent virgin material is substituted, is insufficient for evaluating the transition towards circularity, which cannot be achieved by technology improvements alone -the demand must also be stabilized.
