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Abstract. The problem of earthquake prediction and the methods of identification of geophysical precursory signals are discussed. To get information on the dynamics of earthquake preparation processes, fluctuations in geophysical time series are analyzed with the method of flicker-noise spectroscopy. Integral indices -power spectra and various moments ("structural functions") -are used as information relations. We demonstrate that the method allows us to reveal earthquake precursors.

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PACS 72.70.+m, 77.22.Jp Owing to the influence of environment and impact of energy fluxes (electric polarisation, heating, photon irradiation, etc.) physical and chemical properties of porous semiconductors (and other materials as well) experience changes which have to be monitored in order to distinguish the moment when the properties become out of a working range. There is a necessity of forecasting the development of catastrophic events in the porous film. In the present work we study the possibility of predicting the occurrence of the electrical breakdown in thin porous films through analysis of the fluctuations of the electric current in the vicinity of this event using a novel method called Dynamic Flicker Noise Spectroscopy -DFNS.