Abstract. The problem of earthquake prediction and the methods of identification of geophysical precursory signals are discussed. To get information on the dynamics of earthquake preparation processes, fluctuations in geophysical time series are analyzed with the method of flicker-noise spectroscopy. Integral indices -power spectra and various moments ("structural functions") -are used as information relations. We demonstrate that the method allows us to reveal earthquake precursors.
To study the nature of seasonal variations in time series measured at the Garm test site, a local model based on the experimental data of atmospheric precipitation penetration into the soil has been proposed. It is intended for filtration of exogenous variations in the data of various time series and a study of statistical structure of different natural processes, including earthquake preparation processes, and the mechanisms of their effect on the biosphere. Using this model, we analyze and compare variations in apparent resistivity and properties of rock moistening. It has been shown that at small current-electrode (AB) separations among all the parameters of water regime, only water saturation of the active soil layer reveals a significant correlation with apparent resistivity variations. When increasing the current-electrode separation, the seasonal variation form varies from quasisinusoidal in the upper layer up to quasi-triangular at the largest investigated depths (maximum separations).
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