Abstract. Climate change projections for Australia predict increasing temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns, and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations. The aims of this study were to predict plant production responses to elevated CO 2 concentrations using the SGS Pasture Model and DairyMod, and then to quantify the effects of climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070 on predicted pasture growth, species composition, and soil moisture conditions of 5 existing pasture systems in climates ranging from cool temperate to subtropical, relative to a historical baseline. Three future climate scenarios were created for each site by adjusting historical climate data according to temperature and rainfall change projections for 2030, 2070 mid-and 2070 high-emission scenarios, using output from the CSIRO Mark 3 global climate model. In the absence of other climate changes, mean annual pasture production at an elevated CO 2 concentration of 550 ppm was predicted to be 24-29% higher than at 380 ppm CO 2 in temperate (C 3 ) species-dominant pastures in southern Australia, with lower mean responses in a mixed C 3 /C 4 pasture at Barraba in northern New South Wales (17%) and in a C 4 pasture at Mutdapilly in south-eastern Queensland (9%). In the future climate scenarios at the Barraba and Mutdapilly sites in subtropical and subhumid climates, respectively, where climate projections indicated warming of up to 4.48C, with little change in annual rainfall, modelling predicted increased pasture production and a shift towards C 4 species dominance. In Mediterranean, temperate, and cool temperate climates, climate change projections indicated warming of up to 3.38C, with annual rainfall reduced by up to 28%. Under future climate scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, and Ellinbank, Victoria, our study predicted increased winter and early spring pasture growth rates, but this was counteracted by a predicted shorter spring growing season, with annual pasture production higher than the baseline under the 2030 climate scenario, but reduced by up to 19% under the 2070 high scenario. In a cool temperate environment at Elliott, Tasmania, annual production was higher than the baseline in all 3 future climate scenarios, but highest in the 2070 mid scenario. At the Wagga Wagga, Ellinbank, and Elliott sites the effect of rainfall declines on pasture production was moderated by a predicted reduction in drainage below the root zone and, at Ellinbank, the use of deeper rooted plant systems was shown to be an effective adaptation to mitigate some of the effect of lower rainfall.

A biophysical simulation model (the Sustainable Grazing Systems Pasture Model) was developed as an integral part of the Sustainable Grazing Systems National Experiment. It was developed to meet the needs of the researchers both for analysing data and processes at individual sites, and for simulating the outcome of these processes operating in generic pasture systems on a range of soil types, under specific grazing managements. The model was designed to reside on the desktops of individual researchers and for those researchers to be part of its development process.The Sustainable Grazing Systems Pasture Model incorporates the following: a physiological model of pasture species herbage accumulation in response to climatic conditions; the water balance including evapotranspiration, runoff (surface and subsurface), infiltration and drainage; pasture utilisation by grazing animals; a metabolisable energy-based animal growth model; and organic matter and inorganic nutrient dynamics (for nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and sulfur) including plant uptake, adsorption, leaching, nitrogen fixation by legumes, and atmospheric nitrogen losses. A range of grazing options (set-stocking, rotational grazing and continuous grazing at a variable rate) is available for ewes and lambs, and wethers. Each of the main modules (water, nutrients, pastures and animals) is interconnected. To avoid bias in the influence of any one module, each is described at about the same level of complexity, with the description of any process being restricted to about 5 parameters. The model is hierarchical in structure and most processes are described in terms of a series of fluxes (or, more specifically, flux densities) that have dimensions of amount per area per time.The model can be closely linked to a database specifically developed for the Sustainable Grazing Systems National Experiment to allow easy importing and exporting of climate and experimental data for comparison with model output. This paper gives an overview of the model structure and its output, the process that was used for its development within Sustainable Grazing Systems, and its use by the Sustainable Grazing Systems sites and themes. Comments are provided on the implementation of the development process to assist future programs using a similar approach.

Ninety-one perennial legumes and herbs (entries) from 47 species in 21 genera were evaluated at sites in New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia over 3 years from 2002 to 2005 to identify plants with superior herbage production, persistence and the potential to reduce ground water recharge. Evaluation was undertaken in three nurseries (general, waterlogged soil and acid soil). Medicago sativa L. subsp. sativa (lucerne) cv. Sceptre was the best performing species across all sites. In the general and acid soil nurseries, Cichorium intybus L. (chicory) cv. Grasslands Puna was the only species comparable with Sceptre lucerne in terms of persistence and herbage production. Trifolium fragiferum L. cv. Palestine and Lotus corniculatus L. SA833 were the best performing species on heavy clay soils prone to waterlogging. Three Dorycnium hirsutum (L.) Ser. accessions persisted well on acid soils, but were slow to establish. Short-lived perennial forage legumes, such as Onobrychis viciifolia Scop. cv. Othello, and three Hedysarum coronarium L. entries, including cv. Grasslands Aokou, had high herbage production in the first 2 years and may be suitable for short-term pastures in phased pasture-crop farming systems. T. uniflorum L. and M. sativa subsp. caerulea SA38052 were highly persistent and could play a role as companion species in mixtures or ground cover species for undulating landscapes. Cullen australasicum (Schltdl.) G.W. Grimes SA4966 and Lotononis bainesii Baker cv. Miles had poor establishment, but were persistent. Chicory, T. fragiferum and L. corniculatus were identified as species, other than lucerne, with the most immediate potential for further selection to increase the diversity of perennial legumes and herbs adapted to southern Australian environments.

The literature relevant to the grazing management of lucerne in temperate Australia is reviewed with emphasis on the factors likely to affect its persistence. Knowledge of lucerne physiology is used to question the validity of the traditional methods of managing grazed stands, which rely mainly on using 10% flowering as a guide to root carbohydrate levels. From these data several alternative management guidelines are proposed that may lead to increased persistence; however, for long-term persistence, there is little doubt that lucerne needs to be grazed leniently and at a late stage of maturity. Several grazing experiments indicate that grazing periods of 16-20 days should have no effect on persistence, provided that the rest period between successive grazings is 35 days or longer. Data from other countries and Australian data from a limited number of experiments also indicate that grazing in either autumn or winter may substantially reduce production and could affect persistence. Three grazing studies in New South Wales were used to highlight critical differences in experimental design which make comparisons among experiments difficult. Standardised sowing rates and grazing management, and statistical procedures which account for the genotype x management x environment interaction, are suggested to improve the extrapolation of results from experiments to other environments. Persistence of different lucerne types under grazing, particularly those recently imported from the U.S.A. or bred in Australia, is considered. While it has been proposed that grazing effects may be related to crown structure, interactions with other factors which affect persistence may also occur. If grazing can be considered to be stressful to a lucerne plant then it could interact with other stresses, caused by moisture deficit, excessive moisture, insect pests and disease, to reduce persistence. Additionally, considerable variation in varietal resistance to some pests and diseases has been recorded in haycut stands, and so there may also be cultivar x grazing effects. All of these factors could combine to affect the persistence of a particular cultivar under grazing. Patterns of lucerne decline were either continuous or step-like. Continuous decline was associated with prolonged grazing, grazing and moisture stress, grazing under waterlogged conditions, or grazing in situations where the incidence of disease was likely to be high. To understand the reasons why plants fail to persist, measurements need to be made frequently and a1 regular intervals, and the moisture and disease status of the site needs to be accurately monitored. The adequacy of different methods of measuring stand persistence is also questioned. The implications for graziers, researchers and lucerne breeders are discussed.

The dormancy and germination of two groups of native perennial grasses were investigated in caryopses or dispersal units. The species were the warm-season native perennial grasses Aristida ramosa R.Br., Bothriochloa macra (Steud.) S. T . Blake. Dichanthium sericeum (R.Br.) Camus, Sporobolus elongatus R.Br., Eragrostis leptostachya Steud., Chloris truncata R.Br. and the cool-season species Stipa variabilis Hughes and Danthonia linkii Kunth. Optimum temperatures for germination were 20-35'C for A . ramosa; 15-35' for D. sericeum and C. truncata; 20-25' for E. leptostachya; 20-30' for B. macra and S. elongatus and 15-25' for D. linkii and S . variabilis. At 1O0and4O0 D. linkiiand A. ramosa respectively were the only species that had highgermination percentages.Removal of the lemma and palea from freshly harvested units of A. ramosa, B. macra, D. sericeum, C. truncata and S. variabilis significantly increased germination. In units stored at 12-27'C there was a breakdown in dormancy after 2-3 months in A , ramosa and B. macra and after 9 months in S . elongatus. In the germination of D. sericeum and D. linkii the lemma and palea appeared to have a long-term inhibitory role.Twenty-week-old whole dispersal units of B. macra, S. elongatus and E. leptostachya and 40-week-old units of S. elongatus and E. leptostachya had an obligate light requirement for germination.The ecological implications of these data in the successful germination of natural seed falls and artificial seedings are discussed.

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Grazing management strategies to alter botanical composition of native pastures were investigated at 4 locations in the high rainfall zone of south-east Australia, including Tasmania. These studies were conducted as part of the Temperate Pasture Sustainability Key Program, which evaluated the effects of grazing management on a wide range of pasture types between 1993 and 1996. Pastures in this study were based on Aristida ramosa/Bothriochloa macra, Microlaena stipoides–Austrodanthonia spp. or Themeda triandra–Austrodanthonia spp. Seasonal rests, increased grazing pressure in spring, mob stocking and cutting for hay were compared to continuous grazing at all sites. In addition, specific local treatments were tested at individual sites. Changes in composition resulting from the treatments were minimal at most sites. This may have been due to a combination of the inherent stability of the pastures, the relatively short duration of the experiments, and the drought conditions experienced, which minimised differences between treatments. Some strategies to alter composition of natural pastures are suggested. In the Aristida–Bothriochloa pasture there was a general decrease in Aristida and an increase in Bothriochloa, which was largely unaffected by the type of grazing management applied. The combination of drought conditions and increasing grazing pressure was sufficient to alter composition without specific management strategies being necessary. In the Themeda–Austrodanthonia pasture, resting in spring, 12-month rests or cutting for hay (which involved a spring rest) allowed Themeda to increase in the pasture. The Microlaena–Austrodanthonia pastures were very stable, especially where annual grass content was low. However, certain treatments allowed Microlaena to increase, a result which is regarded as being favourable. The major effects in these latter pastures were on undesirable species. Vulpia spp. were reduced by resting in autumn and increased spring grazing pressure, while Holcus lanatus was increased dramatically by resting in spring and was also increased by resting in autumn or winter, but only when conditions were suitable for growth of this species. In many cases, treatment differences were only expressed following recovery from drought, showing that timing of grazing management to achieve change is critical.

A study was conducted on a native pasture (dominated by redgrass, Bothriochloa macra) in the Barraba district of northern New South Wales to examine the effects of 5 grazing treatments on total herbage mass, litter mass, basal cover, ground cover, sheep liveweight, wool production and soil water content (SWC, mm) at different depths. Plots were grazed with Merino wethers and data were collected from spring 1997 to spring 2001 and analysed to determine the effects of treatments on both production and sustainability. Five grazing treatments were applied in a randomised 3 replicate design. Grazing treatments were: continuous grazing at 4 and 6 sheep/ha (C4 and C6), continuous grazing at 8 sheep/ha, with subterranean clover (Trifolium subterraneum) oversown and fertiliser applied (C8+sub), and, rotational grazing at an annual stocking rate of 4 sheep/ha with pasture grazed for 4 weeks and rested for 4 weeks (R4/4), or rested for 12 weeks (R4/12).Total herbage mass declined in the C4 (control) treatment throughout the experiment and, compared with this treatment, the C6 treatment had less (P<0.007) linear trend over time, while the R4/12 treatment had a greater (P<0.001) linear trend. Stocking rates could not be maintained in the C4 and C6 treatments and sheep were supplementary fed or removed from these treatments for a total of 133 and 263 days, respectively. For ground cover, the linear trend was greater (P<0.05) in the C8+sub, R4/4, and R4/12 treatments compared with the continuously grazed C4 and C6 treatments and for litter mass this trend was also greater (P<0.05) for the R4/12 treatment than the C4 treatment. Basal cover of wiregrass (Aristida ramosa), wallaby grass (Austrodanthonia spp.) and windmill grass (Chloris truncata) was not affected by grazing treatment but for redgrass the linear trend was greater (P<0.05) in the C8+sub, R4/4, and R4/12 treatments compared with the C4 and C6 treatments. Sheep liveweight (kg/head) was greater (P<0.001) in the C8+sub treatment compared with the C4 treatment. Annual wool production (kg/head) was also higher (P<0.05) in the C8+sub treatment compared with all other treatments. Compared with the C4�treatment, significant differences in soil water content occurred in the R4/12 and C8+sub treatments, but these were predicted to be only 2.9 mm per year for the R4/12 treatment (0–30 cm depth) and 5.7 mm per year for the C8+sub treatment (30–170 cm). Use of a biophysical model indicated that evapotranspiration was the largest output term in the soil water balance and that both drainage and surface runoff of water were episodic events. A sustainability index derived from economic (equivalent annual net return ($/ha) for a 10-year period), animal production, pasture, soil health and soil water data indicated that the C4 and C6 treatments had the lowest scores for each of these parameters and the lowest overall indices. These scores were highly correlated with subjective assessments of the impact of the treatments (r�=�0.93). Overall, these data indicated substantial benefits of either rotationally grazing or the addition of fertiliser and subterranean clover to the production and sustainability of the native pasture studied.