Abstract. Climate change projections for Australia predict increasing temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns, and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations. The aims of this study were to predict plant production responses to elevated CO 2 concentrations using the SGS Pasture Model and DairyMod, and then to quantify the effects of climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070 on predicted pasture growth, species composition, and soil moisture conditions of 5 existing pasture systems in climates ranging from cool temperate to subtropical, relative to a historical baseline. Three future climate scenarios were created for each site by adjusting historical climate data according to temperature and rainfall change projections for 2030, 2070 mid-and 2070 high-emission scenarios, using output from the CSIRO Mark 3 global climate model. In the absence of other climate changes, mean annual pasture production at an elevated CO 2 concentration of 550 ppm was predicted to be 24-29% higher than at 380 ppm CO 2 in temperate (C 3 ) species-dominant pastures in southern Australia, with lower mean responses in a mixed C 3 /C 4 pasture at Barraba in northern New South Wales (17%) and in a C 4 pasture at Mutdapilly in south-eastern Queensland (9%). In the future climate scenarios at the Barraba and Mutdapilly sites in subtropical and subhumid climates, respectively, where climate projections indicated warming of up to 4.48C, with little change in annual rainfall, modelling predicted increased pasture production and a shift towards C 4 species dominance. In Mediterranean, temperate, and cool temperate climates, climate change projections indicated warming of up to 3.38C, with annual rainfall reduced by up to 28%. Under future climate scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, and Ellinbank, Victoria, our study predicted increased winter and early spring pasture growth rates, but this was counteracted by a predicted shorter spring growing season, with annual pasture production higher than the baseline under the 2030 climate scenario, but reduced by up to 19% under the 2070 high scenario. In a cool temperate environment at Elliott, Tasmania, annual production was higher than the baseline in all 3 future climate scenarios, but highest in the 2070 mid scenario. At the Wagga Wagga, Ellinbank, and Elliott sites the effect of rainfall declines on pasture production was moderated by a predicted reduction in drainage below the root zone and, at Ellinbank, the use of deeper rooted plant systems was shown to be an effective adaptation to mitigate some of the effect of lower rainfall.

DairyMod and EcoMod, which are biophysical pasture-simulation models for Australian and New Zealand grazing systems, are described. Each model has a common underlying biophysical structure, with the main differences being in their available management options. The third model in this group is the SGS Pasture Model, which has been previously described, and these models are referred to collectively as ‘the model’. The model includes modules for pasture growth and utilisation by grazing animals, water and nutrient dynamics, animal physiology and production and a range of options for pasture management, irrigation and fertiliser application. Up to 100 independent paddocks can be defined to represent spatial variation within a notional farm. Paddocks can have different soil types, nutrient status, pasture species, fertiliser and irrigation management, but are subject to the same weather. Management options include commonly used rotational grazing management strategies and continuous grazing with fixed or variable stock numbers. A cutting regime simulates calculation of seasonal pasture growth rates. The focus of the present paper is on recent developments to the management routines and nutrient dynamics, including organic matter, inorganic nutrients, leaching and gaseous nitrogen losses, and greenhouse gases. Some model applications are presented and the role of the model in research projects is discussed.

DairyMod, EcoMod, and the SGS Pasture Model are mechanistic biophysical models developed to explore scenarios in grazing systems. The aim of this manuscript was to test the ability of the models to simulate net herbage accumulation rates of ryegrass-based pastures across a range of environments and pasture management systems in Australia and New Zealand. Measured monthly net herbage accumulation rate and accumulated yield data were collated from ten grazing system experiments at eight sites ranging from cool temperate to subtropical environments. The local climate, soil, pasture species, and management (N fertiliser, irrigation, and grazing or cutting pattern) were described in the model for each site, and net herbage accumulation rates modelled. The model adequately simulated the monthly net herbage accumulation rates across the range of environments, based on the summary statistics and observed patterns of seasonal growth, particularly when the variability in measured herbage accumulation rates was taken into account. Agreement between modelled and observed growth rates was more accurate and precise in temperate than in subtropical environments, and in winter and summer than in autumn and spring. Similarly, agreement between predicted and observed accumulated yields was more accurate than monthly net herbage accumulation. Different temperature parameters were used to describe the growth of perennial ryegrass cultivars and annual ryegrass; these differences were in line with observed growth patterns and breeding objectives. Results are discussed in the context of the difficulties in measuring pasture growth rates and model limitations.

Climate variability has an enormous impact on agricultural productivity, rural livelihoods, and economics at farm, regional, and national scales. An every-day challenge facing farmers is to make management decisions in the face of this climate variability. Being able to minimise losses in droughts and take advantage of favourable seasons is the promise of seasonal climate forecasts. The criteria for their adoption depends on what variables are forecast, their accuracy, the likely economic and/or natural resource benefits and how well they are communicated. In reviewing how current seasonal climate forecasts meet these criteria, it is clear that they offer considerable potential to buffer the effects of climate variability in agriculture, particularly in regions that have high levels of inter-annual rainfall variability and are strongly influenced by El Niño and La Niña events. However, the current skill, lead time, relevance to agricultural decisions, and communication techniques are not well enough advanced and/or integrated to lead to widespread confidence and adoption by farmers. The current challenges are to continue to improve forecast reliability and to better communicate the probabilistic outputs of seasonal climate forecasts to decision makers.

Livestock have long been integral to food production systems, often not by choice but by need. While our knowledge of livestock greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation has evolved, the prevailing focus has been—somewhat myopically—on technology applications associated with mitigation. Here, we (1) examine the global distribution of livestock GHG emissions, (2) explore social, economic and environmental co‐benefits and trade‐offs associated with mitigation interventions and (3) critique approaches for quantifying GHG emissions. This review uncovered many insights. First, while GHG emissions from ruminant livestock are greatest in low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMIC; globally, 66% of emissions are produced by Latin America and the Caribbean, East and southeast Asia and south Asia), the majority of mitigation strategies are designed for developed countries. This serious concern is heightened by the fact that 80% of growth in global meat production over the next decade will occur in LMIC. Second, few studies concurrently assess social, economic and environmental aspects of mitigation. Of the 54 interventions reviewed, only 16 had triple‐bottom line benefit with medium–high mitigation potential. Third, while efforts designed to stimulate the adoption of strategies allowing both emissions reduction (ER) and carbon sequestration (CS) would achieve the greatest net emissions mitigation, CS measures have greater potential mitigation and co‐benefits. The scientific community must shift attention away from the prevailing myopic lens on carbon, towards more holistic, systems‐based, multi‐metric approaches that carefully consider the raison d'être for livestock systems. Consequential life cycle assessments and systems‐aligned ‘socio‐economic planetary boundaries’ offer useful starting points that may uncover leverage points and cross‐scale emergent properties. The derivation of harmonized, globally reconciled sustainability metrics requires iterative dialogue between stakeholders at all levels. Greater emphasis on the simultaneous characterization of multiple sustainability dimensions would help avoid situations where progress made in one area causes maladaptive outcomes in other areas.

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The objective of this study was to measure the impacts of summer heat events on physiological parameters (body temperature, respiratory rate and panting scores), grazing behaviour and production parameters of lactating Holstein Friesian cows managed on an Automated Robotic Dairy during Australian summer. The severity of heat stress was measured using Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) and impacts of different THIs—low (≤72), moderate (73–82) and high (≥83)—on physiological responses and production performance were measured. There was a highly significant (p ≤ 0.01) effect of THI on respiratory rate (66.7, 84.7 and 109.1/min), panting scores (1.4, 1.9 and 2.3) and average body temperature of cows (38.4, 39.4 and 41.5 °C), which increased as THI increased from low to moderate to high over the summer. Average milk production parameters were also significantly (p ≤ 0.01) affected by THI, such that daily milk production dropped by 14% from low to high THI, milk temperature and fat% increased by 3%, whilst protein% increased by 2%. The lactation stage of cow had no significant effect on physiological parameters but affected (p ≤ 0.05) average daily milk yield and milk solids. Highly significant (p ≤ 0.01) positive correlations were obtained between THI and milk temperature, fat% and protein% whilst the reverse was observed between THI and milk yield, feed intake and rumination time. Under moderate and high THI, most cows sought shade, spent more time around watering points and showed signs of distress (excessive salivation and open mouth panting). In view of the expected future increase in the frequency and severity of heat events, additional strategies including selection and breeding for thermotolerance and dietary interventions to improve resilience of cows need to be pursued.