PART 1 S~M M . \ I I Y : 4 I , Knowledge as a coinmodit)-: tlie paradox of its place in value theory. --9 2 . Ho\v is choice made amongst courses of action when several hypotheses are mterta.ined about the outcome of each? -5 3 . The influence of each such hypothesis considered as a function o f t\vo independent variables, its face-value and the strength of its claim to be treated as true. -S 4. The role of this second independent variabk. ~ 5 5. 'The concept of frequency-ratio. -6. The concept o f non-divisible noIi-seriable esper1ment. --9 7. Frequency-ratio probability applicable only to experiments wich are divisible or seriable. -8. Five dilemmas encountered by the attempt to use numerical probability as a measure of true uncertainty. ~ 3 9. The required character of a new measiirc o f nncertainty. Degrees 0 1 disbeZie/ proposed instead o f degrees o f belicf. -yj 10. Certainty contrasted with absence of disbelief. -9 1 1 . Uefinition and esplanation of potential strrprisz. -9 I?. Itesolution of the five dilemm 13. An illustration from (I The Hunting o f the 9: I. -Economic ttieory wcks to show how men's observed beha-
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