On the Meaning and Measure of Uncertainty

Abstract

PART 1 S~M M . \ I I Y : 4 I , Knowledge as a coinmodit)-: tlie paradox of its place in value theory. --9 2 . Ho\v is choice made amongst courses of action when several hypotheses are mterta.ined about the outcome of each? -5 3 . The influence of each such hypothesis considered as a function o f t\vo independent variables, its face-value and the strength of its claim to be treated as true. -S 4. The role of this second independent variabk. ~ 5 5. 'The concept of frequency-ratio. -6. The concept o f non-divisible noIi-seriable esper1ment. --9 7. Frequency-ratio probability applicable only to experiments wich are divisible or seriable. -8. Five dilemmas encountered by the attempt to use numerical probability as a measure of true uncertainty. ~ 3 9. The required character of a new measiirc o f nncertainty. Degrees 0 1 disbeZie/ proposed instead o f degrees o f belicf. -yj 10. Certainty contrasted with absence of disbelief. -9 1 1 . Uefinition and esplanation of potential strrprisz. -9 I?. Itesolution of the five dilemm 13. An illustration from (I The Hunting o f the 9: I. -Economic ttieory wcks to show how men's observed beha-

G.L.S. Shackle

“…But if so, subjective probability leaves us no better off. (Shackle, 1955a(Shackle, [1952c It is plausible to regard the psychological premises underpinning Bayesian arithmetic as the same as those supporting the frequentialist approach. Doing arithmetic is not how most choices are made; people do not calculate mathematical expectation by using quantified probabilities regardless of whether they were obtained by observation of a large number of trials or by some process of ranking hypothetical bets.…”

“…By contrast with cases Bayesians could accommodate, Shackle (1955aShackle ( [1952c, pp. 30, 34) considers the case of trying to assign a probability to what kind of hat is in a closed hat box.…”

A NOTE ON METROECONOMICA: SHACKLE'S CONTRIBUTION

“…Shackle's article, ‘On the meaning and measure of uncertainty I’, clarified the epistemological aspects of his theory on uncertainty in relation to probability theory (Shackle, 1952). Most economic decisions, Shackle argued, are crucial, unique experiments; namely, situations where the person concerned cannot exclude from his/her mind the possibility that the very act of performing the experiment may forever destroy the circumstances in which it was performed.…”

“…The article of the following year, ‘On the meaning and measure of uncertainty II’ (Shackle, 1953b), contained the analytical exposition that was lacking from the previous version. It is noteworthy that Fossati himself asked Shackle to contribute this article to Metroeconomica (Shackle, 1955, p. vii), and the latter evidently considered it useful to furnish a more formalized version.…”

A framework for assessing market entry opportunities for internet‐based TV

“…perienced the good, they hardly have any incentive to demand the product (Shackle 1952). Due to this information-paradox, in this case better termed 'entertainment-paradox' (Dietl & Franck 2000), providers do not have an incentive to let customers inspect, i.e.…”