Recent theoretical accounts propose that atypical predictive processing can explain the diverse cognitive and behavioral features associated with autism, and that difficulties in making predictions may be related to reduced contextual processing. In this pre‐registered study, 30 autistic children aged 6–14 years and 30 typically developing children matched in age and non‐verbal IQ completed visual extrapolation and false memory tasks to assess predictive abilities and contextual processing, respectively. In the visual extrapolation tasks, children were asked to predict when an occluded car would reach the end of a road and when an occluded set of lights would fill up a grid. Autistic children made predictions that were just as precise as those made by typically developing children, across a range of occlusion durations. In the false memory task, autistic and typically developing children did not differ significantly in their discrimination between items presented in a list and semantically related, non‐presented items, although the data were insensitive, suggesting the need for larger samples. Our findings help to refine theoretical accounts by challenging the notion that autism is caused by pervasively disordered prediction abilities. Further studies will be required to assess the relationship between predictive processing and context use in autism, and to establish the conditions under which predictive processing may be impaired. Autism Res 2018, 11: 509–518. © 2017 The Authors Autism Research published by International Society for Autism Research and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.Lay SummaryIt has been suggested that autistic individuals have difficulties making predictions and perceiving the overall gist of things. Yet, here we found that autistic children made similar predictions about hidden objects as non‐autistic children. In a memory task, autistic children were slightly less confused about whether they had heard a word before, when words were closely related in meaning. We conclude that autistic children do not show difficulties with this type of prediction.

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Objective The Memory Validity Profile (MVP) is a standalone performance validity test developed specifically for use with children. Prior research has demonstrated the MVP’s strength in its ease of administration to children with a wide range of intellectual abilities. However, it has been found to lack sensitivity in detecting noncredible performance in select clinical populations using published cut-offs. The current study examines the MVP’s performance in a diagnostically heterogeneous clinical sample and proposes a new cut-off for optimization of sensitivity and specificity. Method Archival clinical data was examined from 96 participants referred for a comprehensive neuropsychological evaluation (ages 6–18). Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to assess the discriminative ability of MVP in detecting cases of noncredible performance defined as failures on both the Test of Memory Malingering and Reliable Digit Span. Results Using published cut-offs, the MVP demonstrated perfect specificity (100%) but suboptimal sensitivity (33.3%). Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed strong discrimination using MVP Total score (AUC = 0.891 (p < 0.001) and a MVP Total cut-score of ≤30 resulted in optimal sensitivity (89%) and specificity (63%). Conclusions Our findings provide additional evidence that published MVP cut-offs may be too lenient to adequately capture instances of noncredible performance and indicate an MVP Total score cut-off of ≤30 may be more appropriate for use with heterogeneous clinical populations.

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