Global
hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) cumulative emissions will be more
than 20 Gt CO2-equiv during 2020–2060 and have a
non-negligible impact on global warming even in full compliance with
the Kigali Amendment (KA). Fluorochemical manufacturers (including
multinationals) in China have accounted for about 70% of global HFC
production since 2015, of which about 60% is emitted outside China.
This study built an integrated model (i.e., DECAF) to estimate both
territorial and exported emissions of China under three scenarios
and assess the corresponding climate effects as well as abatement
costs. Achieving near-zero territorial emissions by 2060 could avoid
23 ± 4 Gt CO2-equiv of cumulative territorial emissions
(compared to the 2019 Baseline scenario) during 2020–2060 at
an average abatement cost of 9 ± 6 USD/t CO2-equiv.
Under the near-zero emission (including territorial and abroad) pathway,
radiative forcing from HFCs will peak in 2037 (60 ± 6 mW/m2) with a 33% peak reduction and 8 years in advance compared
to the path regulated by the KA, and the radiative forcing by 2060
will be lower than that in 2019. Accelerated phase-out of HFC production
in China could provide a possibility for rapid global HFC abatement
and achieve greater climate benefits.
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