Abstract:Global
hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) cumulative emissions will be more
than 20 Gt CO2-equiv during 2020–2060 and have a
non-negligible impact on global warming even in full compliance with
the Kigali Amendment (KA). Fluorochemical manufacturers (including
multinationals) in China have accounted for about 70% of global HFC
production since 2015, of which about 60% is emitted outside China.
This study built an integrated model (i.e., DECAF) to estimate both
territorial and exported emissions of China under three scena… Show more
The Montreal Protocol has been successful in safeguarding the ozone layer and curbing climate change. However, accurately estimating and reducing the time-lagged emissions of ozone-depleting substances or their substitutes, such as produced but not-yet-emitted fluorocarbon banks, remains a significant challenge. Here, we use a dynamic material flow analysis model to characterize the global stocks and flows of two fluorocarbon categories, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), from 1986 to 2060. We assess emission pathways, time-lagged emission sizes, and potential abatement measures throughout different life cycle stages while focusing on the role of banked fluorocarbons in global and regional decarbonization efforts in the post-Kigali Amendment era. Although fluorocarbon releases are expected to decline, the cumulative global warming potential (GWP)-weighted emissions of HCFCs and HFCs are significant; these will be 6.4 (±1.2) and 14.8 (±2.5) gigatons CO
2
-equivalent, respectively, in 2022–2060 in our business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Scenario analysis demonstrates that implementing currently available best environmental practices in developed economies can reduce cumulative GWP-weighted emissions by up to 45% compared with the BAU scenario.
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