Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation -and associated ecosystem consequences -have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date.

Many of the world's northern peatlands are underlain by rapidly thawing permafrost. Because plant production in these peatlands is often nitrogen (N)-limited, a release of N stored in permafrost may stimulate net primary production or change species composition if it is plant-available. In this study, we aimed to quantify plant-available N in thawing permafrost soils of subarctic peatlands. We compared plant-available N-pools and -fluxes in near-surface permafrost (0-10 cm below the thawfront) to those taken from a current rooting zone layer (5-15 cm depth) across five representative peatlands in subarctic Sweden. A range of complementary methods was used: extractions of inorganic and organic N, inorganic and organic N-release measurements at 0.5 and 11°C (over 120 days, relevant to different thaw-development scenarios) and a bioassay with Poa alpina test plants. All extraction methods, across all peatlands, consistently showed up to seven times more plant-available N in near-surface permafrost soil compared to the current rooting zone layer. These results were supported by the bioassay experiment, with an eightfold larger plant N-uptake from permafrost soil than from other N-sources such as current rooting zone soil or fresh litter substrates. Moreover, net mineralization rates were much higher in permafrost soils compared to soils from the current rooting zone layer (273 mg N m À2 and 1348 mg N m À2 per growing season for near-surface permafrost at 0.5°C and 11°C respectively, compared to À30 mg N m À2 for current rooting zone soil at 11°C). Hence, our results demonstrate that near-surface permafrost soil of subarctic peatlands can release a biologically relevant amount of plant available nitrogen, both directly upon thawing as well as over the course of a growing season through continued microbial mineralization of organically bound N. Given the nitrogen-limited nature of northern peatlands, this release may have impacts on both plant productivity and species composition.

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.