Abstract. The objective of this paper was the experimental investigation of the accumulated induction effect of a large offshore wind farm as a whole, i.e. the global-blockage effect, in relation to atmospheric-stability estimates and wind farm operational states. We measured the inflow of a 400 MW offshore wind farm in the German North Sea with a scanning long-range Doppler wind lidar. A methodology to reduce the statistical variability of different lidar scans at comparable measurement conditions was introduced, and an extensive uncertainty assessment of the averaged wind fields was performed to be able to identify the global-blockage effect, which is small compared to e.g. wind turbine wake effects and ambient variations in the inflow. Our results showed a 4 % decrease in wind speed (accuracy range of 2 % to 6 %) at transition piece height (24.6 m) upwind of the wind farm with the turbines operating at high thrust coefficients above 0.8 in a stably stratified atmosphere, which we interpreted as global blockage. In contrast, at unstable stratification and similar operating conditions and for situations with low thrust coefficients (i.e. approx. 0 for not operating turbines and ≤ 0.3 for turbines operating far above rated wind speed) we identified no wind speed deficit. We discussed the significance of our measurements and possible sources of error in long-range scanning lidar campaigns and give recommendations on how to measure small flow effects like global blockage with scanning Doppler lidar. In conclusion, we provide strong evidence for the existence of global blockage in large offshore wind farms in stable stratification and the turbines operating at a high thrust coefficient by planar lidar wind field measurements. We further conclude that global blockage is dependent on atmospheric stratification.

Abstract. Decreasing gate closure times on the electricity stock exchange market and the rising share of renewables in today's energy system causes an increasing demand for very short-term power forecasts. While the potential of dual-Doppler radar data for that purpose was recently shown, the utilization of single-Doppler lidar measurements needs to be explored further to make remote-sensing-based very short-term forecasts more feasible for offshore sites. The aim of this work was to develop a lidar-based forecasting methodology, which addresses a lidar's comparatively low scanning speed. We developed a lidar-based forecast methodology using horizontal plan position indicator (PPI) lidar scans. It comprises a filtering methodology to recover data at far ranges, a wind field reconstruction, a time synchronization to account for time shifts within the lidar scans and a wind speed extrapolation to hub height. Applying the methodology to seven free-flow turbines in the offshore wind farm Global Tech I revealed the model's ability to outperform the benchmark persistence during unstable stratification, in terms of deterministic as well as probabilistic scores. The performance during stable and neutral situations was significantly lower, which we attribute mainly to errors in the extrapolation of wind speed to hub height.

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Abstract. Due to the increasing share of wind energy in the power system, minute-scale wind power forecasts have gained importance. Remote sensing-based approaches have proven to be a promising alternative to statistical methods and thus need to be further developed towards an operational use, aiming to increase their forecast availability and skill. Therefore, the contribution of this paper is to extend lidar-based forecasts to a methodology for observer-based probabilistic power forecasts of individual wind turbines and aggregated wind farm power. To do so, lidar-based forecasts are combined with SCADA-based forecasts that advect wind vectors derived from wind turbine operational data. After a calibration, forecasts of individual turbines are aggregated to a probabilistic power forecast of turbine subsets by means of a copula approach. We found that combining the lidar- and SCADA-based forecasts significantly improved both forecast skill and forecast availability of a 5-minute ahead probabilistic power forecast at an offshore wind farm. Calibration further increased the forecast skill. Calibrated observer-based forecasts outperformed the benchmark persistence for unstable atmospheric conditions. The aggregation of probabilistic forecasts of turbine subsets revealed the potential of the copula approach. We discuss the skill, robustness and dependency on atmospheric conditions of the individual forecasts, the value of the observer-based forecast, its calibration and aggregation and more generally the value of minute-scale power forecasts of offshore wind. In conclusion, combining different data sources to an observer-based forecast is beneficial in all regarded cases. For an operational use one should distinguish between and adapt to atmospheric stability.

Remote sensing-based wind power forecasts are nowadays being increasingly investigated. Long-range lidar scans are hereby often performed at low heights, causing the need for a wind speed extrapolation to hub height. In this work we analysed the accuracy of the stability corrected logarithmic wind profile and its sensitivity to atmospheric stability, wind speed and extrapolation height by means of a theoretical error estimation using error propagation. Emphasis was given to analyse the contributions of the profile’s individual variables but also considering the measurement campaign framework. We further used lidar measurements at the offshore wind farm Global Tech I to support the theoretical analysis. The logarithmic profile was found to be able to describe profiles during most situations, however, decreasing wind speeds with height cannot be represented. Results showed that due to the nature of the stability correction term extrapolation errors are largest during very stable atmospheric conditions. Here, stability estimation errors were dominant. Under near neutral and neutral atmospheric conditions the wind speed error contributed most to the overall error. We conclude that extrapolation errors can mainly be reduced by optimising the estimation of atmospheric stability using accurate measurement devices. Furthermore, the precise horizontal alignment of the lidar device is important.