This article analyzes an emerging technological innovation, namely, electronic initiation systems for mining explosives in South Africa. The concept of electronic initiation is presenting itself as a challenge to traditional initiation systems, particularly cap-and-fuse and shock tube technologies. From a technology strategy viewpoint, the challenge is to determine the nature of the managerial decisions that have to be addressed. The UtterbackAbernathy innovation model is used to assess the evolution of the emerging technology; it is found that the technology is still in the fluid phase and that a dominant design has not yet emerged. Since the dominant design is a very important milestone in the evolvement of the product with regard to both the technical and the business aspects, the immediate managerial focus should be on the evaluation factors that may influence the emergence of the dominant design. The emergence of a dominant design is, however, a complex process that depends on the interplay between a myriad of issues, including technological, market, social, economic, and related aspects. The paper anticipates the technological future of the innovation by exploring the factors that may influence the dominant design of electronic initiation systems, and casts the findings in a format that is useful for managerial decision support.
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