This paper considers credit procyclicality processes for Spanish deposit institutions using the macro-and micro-prudential methods for the period from 1984 to 2009. The macro-prudential method proposed by Basel III is applied first in order to identify credit cycles and act as a criterion for establishing counter-cyclical capital buffer requirements. Two expansive credit cycles are thus detected, both of which are indeed followed by financial instability problems. In addition, a micro-prudential approach is applied to analyse the effects of the credit policy of banks on the results obtained during each of the two credit cycles. Processes of procyclicality at the level of financial institutions are detected for the first credit cycle, while for the second evidence is presented to support the idea that statistical provision proved effective in the early years of the crisis. These findings are important for designing prudential policies aimed at preventively monitoring and fostering stability in the banking sector.En este trabajo investigamos los procesos de prociclicidad crediticia para las entidades de depósito españolas desde la perspectiva macro y micro prudencial para el periodo 1984-2009. Inicialmente hemos aplicado la metodología macroprudencial propuesta en el marco de Basilea III para la identificación de ciclos crediticios y que servirá como criterio para el establecimiento de requerimientos de capital regulatorio contracíclico. Así, hemos detectado dos ciclos crediticios expansivos los cuales, efectivamente, desembocan en sendos problemas de estabilidad financiera. Complementariamente, aplicando un enfoque microprudencial, hemos analizado el efecto de la política crediticia de las entidades sobre los resultados que obtienen a lo largo de cada uno de los dos ciclos crediticios. Así, durante el primer ciclo crediticio, se constatan procesos de prociclicidad crediticia a nivel de entidades financieras mientras que, para el segundo ciclo crediticio, presentamos evidencia que sugiere la efectividad de la provisión estadística durante los primeros años de la crisis. Los resultados son relevantes para el diseño de las políticas prudenciales que tienen como objetivo monitorizar y promover preventivamente la estabilidad del sistema bancario.

This article provides a comparative analysis of the performance of the credit growth variable compared to the credit-to-GDP ratio as an early warning indicator of banking crises. We find that both variables correctly detect expansive credit growth leading to financial stability problems. However, the timing of the early warning indicators is closer in keeping with cycle changes when the credit growth variable is used. The results obtained are important to design prudential policies aimed at preventively monitoring and fostering banking sector stability and, particularly to manage the countercyclical capital buffer envisaged in the Basel III package.

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