2014
DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2014.946174
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Countercyclical capital buffers: credit-to-GDP ratio versus credit growth

Abstract: This article provides a comparative analysis of the performance of the credit growth variable compared to the credit-to-GDP ratio as an early warning indicator of banking crises. We find that both variables correctly detect expansive credit growth leading to financial stability problems. However, the timing of the early warning indicators is closer in keeping with cycle changes when the credit growth variable is used. The results obtained are important to design prudential policies aimed at preventively monito… Show more

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Cited by 8 publications
(4 citation statements)
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“…Kaufmann and Kugler (2010) also estimate real GDP on the basis of the development of M3, including the aspect of cointegration of the given variables. This idea is supported by Holtemöller (2004), who sets the time delay of the monetary policy tools on product changes at six quarters.…”
Section: Jan čErnohorskýmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Kaufmann and Kugler (2010) also estimate real GDP on the basis of the development of M3, including the aspect of cointegration of the given variables. This idea is supported by Holtemöller (2004), who sets the time delay of the monetary policy tools on product changes at six quarters.…”
Section: Jan čErnohorskýmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Most of these publications are devoted to diagnosing the stability of financial markets and financial systems. Financial market stability analyses are often based on either interest rate analysis [31][32] or identifying phases of the credit cycle [33][34][35]. The stability of financial systems, particularly the banking sector, is also a prominent research area.…”
Section: -Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Second, research on the stability of financial markets is carried out mainly in two directions: on the basis of interest rate analysis [ 30 , 35 ] and on the basis of identification of the credit cycle phase [ 32 , 36 40 ]. At the same time, within the framework of the second direction, models for assessing the cyclic components of the credit GAP or its transformations, as well as early warning models are distinguished.…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%