Werning, and panelists and participants on the HELP! (Health and Pandemics Economics Group) seminar on March 27th, the World Bank's Development Policy and Covid-19 e-seminar on April 1st, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Virtual Macro Seminar on April 3rd, and the Chicago Economics Department lunch on April 8th. The authors declare to have no conflict of interest to disclose regarding the research on this paper. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. At least one co-author has disclosed a financial relationship of potential relevance for this research. Further information is available online at http://www.nber.org/papers/w26981.ack NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

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We study the optimal lockdown policy for a planner who wants to control the fatalities of a pandemic while minimizing the output costs of the lockdown. We use the SIR epidemiology model and a linear economy to formalize the planner's dynamic control problem. The optimal policy depends on the fraction of infected and susceptible in the population. We parametrize the model using data on the COVID19 pandemic and the economic breadth of the lockdown. The quantitative analysis identifies the features that shape the intensity and duration of the optimal lockdown policy. Our baseline parametrization is conditional on a 1% of infected agents at the outbreak, no cure for the disease, and the possibility of testing. The optimal policy prescribes a severe lockdown beginning two weeks after the outbreak, covers 60% of the population after a month, and is gradually withdrawn covering 20% of the population after 3 months. The intensity of the lockdown depends on the gradient of the fatality rate as a function of the infected, and on the assumed value of a statistical life. The absence of testing increases the economic costs of the lockdown, and shortens the duration of the optimal lockdown which ends more abruptly. Welfare under the optimal policy with testing is higher, equivalent to a one-time payment of 2% of GDP.

Recombinant human TSH (rhTSH)-stimulated thyroglobulin (Tg) measurement and (131)I whole body scan (WBS) have been validated as informative tests in the postsurgical follow-up of differentiated thyroid carcinoma. We report the diagnostic accuracy of Tg measurement and diagnostic WBS, alone or in combination, after rhTSH stimulation in a retrospective, consecutive series of patients undergoing follow-up for differentiated thyroid cancer. Routine procedures also include neck ultrasound in every patient and post-therapy WBS when indicated. We studied 340 consecutive patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma, previously treated with near-total thyroidectomy and (131)I thyroid ablation, scheduled for routine diagnostic tests. At baseline on L-T(4)-suppressive therapy, 294 patients had undetectable (<1 ng/ml) serum Tg and negative anti-Tg autoantibodies (TgAb), 25 patients had undetectable serum Tg and positive TgAb, and 21 patients had detectable serum Tg and negative TgAb. These patients were tested for the presence of active disease by rhTSH stimulation. The results of our study showed that rhTSH-stimulated Tg alone had a diagnostic sensitivity of 85% for detecting active disease and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 98.2%. After adding the results of neck ultrasound, sensitivity increased to 96.3%, and the NPV to 99.5%. rhTSH-stimulated WBS had a sensitivity of only 21% and a NPV of 89%. The combination of rhTSH-stimulated Tg and WBS had a sensitivity of 92.7% and a NPV of 99%. We conclude that the rhTSH-stimulated Tg test combined with neck ultrasonography has the highest diagnostic accuracy in detecting persistent disease in the follow-up of differentiated thyroid carcinoma. A detectable level of serum Tg on L-T(4), its conversion from undetectable to detectable after rhTSH, and/or a suspicious finding at ultrasound will allow the identification of patients requiring therapeutic procedures without the need for diagnostic WBS.

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for their comments. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

We prove that the ratio of kurtosis to the frequency of price changes is a sufficient statistic for the real effects of monetary shocks, measured by the cumulated output response following the shock. The sufficient statistic result holds in a large class of models which includes Taylor (1980); Calvo (1983); Reis (2006 ); Golosov and Lucas (2007 ); Nakamura and Steinsson (2010); Midrigan (2011); and Alvarez and Lippi (2014). Several models in this class are able to account for the positive excess kurtosis of the size distribution of price changes that appears in the data. We review empirical measures of kurtosis and frequency and conclude that a model that successfully matches the microevidence on kurtosis and frequency produces real effects that are about four times larger than in the Golosov-Lucas model, and about 30 percent below those of the Calvo model. We discuss the robustness of our results to changes in the setup, including small inflation and leptokurtic cost shocks. (JEL, E23, E31)

From 1969 to 1990 there were 309 patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma (241 papillary and 68 follicular) treated with radioactive iodine for functioning node metastases alone (n = 191) or distant metastases (n = 118) with or without node metastases. These patients represented 32.7% of 945 patients treated in our institution during the same period. Initial treatment included near-total thyroidectomy and 131I ablation of postsurgical thyroid residue, followed by L-thyroxine suppressive therapy. At the end of follow-up (mean 5.8 years), 146 patients (76.4%) in the group with nodal metastases were considered cured, as assessed by clinical and laboratory evaluation including whole body scan (WBS) and serum thyroglobulin (Tg) levels; 32 patients (16.7%) had persistent disease. Loss of 131I uptake in persistent metastatic lesions occurred in five patients (2.6%), and newly developed distant metastases occurred in eight patients (4.2%). Of the patients with distant metastases, 36.4% were cured by 131I. Distant metastases from papillary carcinomas had a higher cure rate than follicular carcinomas (p < 0.01). The metastases of four patients (5.2%) lost the property to take up radioiodine. Lung and bone metastases detectable by WBS but not by radiography were most likely to be cured by 131I. The overall survival at the end of follow-up was 95.8% in patients with only lymph node metastases and 76.0% in those with distant metastases. Tumor-related deaths were 3.6% and 23.7%, respectively. Our data indicate that 131I therapy is highly effective in the treatment of lymph node metastases from differentiated thyroid carcinoma.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)