No abstract

Since the 1990s, the modulational instability has commonly been used to explain the occurrence of rogue waves that appear from nowhere in the open ocean. However, the importance of this instability in the context of ocean waves is not well established. This mechanism has been successfully studied in laboratory experiments and in mathematical studies, but there is no consensus on what actually takes place in the ocean. In this work, we question the oceanic relevance of this paradigm. In particular, we analyze several sets of field data in various European locations with various tools, and find that the main generation mechanism for rogue waves is the constructive interference of elementary waves enhanced by second-order bound nonlinearities and not the modulational instability. This implies that rogue waves are likely to be rare occurrences of weakly nonlinear random seas.

We revisit the classical but as yet unresolved problem of predicting the breaking onset of 2D and 3D irrotational gravity water waves. This study focuses on domains with flat bottom topography and conditions ranging from deep to intermediate depth (depth to wavelength ratio from 1 to 0.2). Our calculations based on a fully nonlinear boundary element model investigated geometric, kinematic and energetic differences between maximally recurrent and marginally breaking waves in focusing wave groups. Maximally steep non-breaking (maximally recurrent) waves are clearly separated from marginally breaking waves by their normalised energy fluxes localized near the crest region. On the surface, this reduces to the local ratio of the energy flux velocity (here the fluid velocity) to the crest point velocity for the tallest wave in the evolving group. This provides a robust threshold parameter for breaking onset for 2D and 3D wave packets propagating in uniform water depths from deep to intermediate. Warning of imminent breaking onset was found to be detected up to a fifth of a carrier wave period prior to a breaking event.Key words: Authors should not enter keywords on the manuscript, as these must be chosen by the author during the online submission process and will then be added during the typesetting process (see http://journals.cambridge.org/data/relatedlink/jfm-keywords.pdf for the full list)

We present a second-order stochastic model of weakly nonlinear waves and develop theoretical expressions for the expected shape of large surface displacements. The model also leads to an exact theoretical expression for the statistical distribution of large wave crests in a form that generalizes the Tayfun distribution (Tayfun, J. Geophys. Res., vol. 85, 1980, p. 1548). The generalized distribution depends on a steepness parameter given by μ = λ3/3, where λ3 represents the skewness coefficient of surface displacements. It converges to the Tayfun distribution in narrowband waves, where both distributions describe the crests of all waves well. In broadband waves, the generalized distribution represents the crests of large waves just as well whereas the Tayfun distribution appears as an upper bound and tends to overestimate them. However, the theoretical nature of the generalized distribution presents practical difficulties in oceanic applications. We circumvent these by adopting an appropriate approximation for the steepness parameter. Comparisons with wind-wave measurements from the North Sea suggest that this approximation allows both distributions to assume an identical form with which we can describe the distribution of large wave crests fairly accurately. The same comparisons also show that third-order nonlinear effects do not appear to have any discernable effect on the statistics of large surface displacements or wave crests.