In the framework of the emergency management in the case of seismic events, the evaluation of the expected damage represents a basic requirement for risk informed planning. Seismic risk is defined by the probability to reach a level of damage on given exposed elements caused by seismic events occurring in a fixed period and in a fixed area. To this purpose, the expected seismic input, the exposed elements and their vulnerability have to be correctly evaluated. The aim of the research is to define a correct model of vulnerability curves, in PGA, for masonry structures in Italy, by heuristic approach starting from damage probability matrices (DPMs). To this purpose, the PLINIVS database, containing data on major Italian seismic events, has been used and supported by “critical” assumption on missing data. To support the reliability of this assumption, two vulnerability models, considering or not the hypothesis on the missing data, have been estimated and used to calculate the seismic scenario of the L’Aquila 2009 earthquake through the IRMA (Italian Risk MAp) platform. Finally, a comparison between the outcomes elaborated by IRMA platform and the observed damage collected in the AEDES forms, has been done.
The Department of Civil Protection (DPC), in compliance with the EU decision 1313/2013 and at the request of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 to update the disaster risk assessments by various countries, released the latest National Risk Assessment for Italy at the end of 2018. Specifically, as regards the seismic risk assessment, six research units belonging to two centres of competence of the DPC collaborated under its guidance to update the risk maps of the Italian residential heritage. This extensive collaboration complied with the recent Italian code for Civil Protection, which requires a broad scientific consensus for risk assessment. During this research activity, six fragility models were developed, according to some common criteria (four for masonry buildings and two for RC buildings). These models were then implemented by the DPC for the definition of the national seismic risk. Within this context, the aim of this paper is to evaluate the risk results provided by these models, compare their features, and assess and validate their prediction capabilities. In particular, this paper shows the comparison of predicted and observed damage scenarios and consequences on building stock and the population of two seismic events, i.e. L’Aquila 2009 and Amatrice 2016. Furthermore, the paper provides some interesting damage and risk predictions at a national level. Overall, the forecasts and comparisons made in this study demonstrate the validity of the approach adopted by the DPC for the assessment of national seismic risk.
In the seismic risk assessment, the factor concerning the vulnerability of buildings under effect of earthquakes assumes a crucial importance. The research aims to evaluate vulnerability curves for masonry Italian buildings through a critical observational approach, useful for analyses at national scale. To this purpose, a damage and typological Italian database is exploited and, on the basis of its contents statistical correlations among level of damage, hazard input and typological characteristics of the buildings are studied. The vulnerability curves are derived using a regression method and their calibration is supported by critical observations on the reliability of the dataset and, consequently, by introducing corrective hypotheses. Furthermore, the research proposes a validation of the curves through the IRMA platform (Italian Risk MAp), a tool developed by Italian Civil Protection for the development of analysis of scenario and risk.
Ischia is a quiescent volcanic complex, characterized by several periods of activity, also of explosive typology. Each year, seismic stations detect few low-energy events, although in the past severe earthquakes occurred, causing extensive damage. The last significant seismic event, with a magnitude of 3.91, occurred on 21st August 2017, again in the municipality of Casamicciola. The hazard constituted by seismic phenomena is compounded by a high exposed value, in terms of population and buildings. From 1861 to today, the resident population has increased considerably, from 23,511 to 62,831 units, to which are added 4 million tourists a year. The high risk of the Ischia territory highlights the need to bring the sustainable planning at the centre of the debate, considering the vulnerability of the area. In this perspective, an application aimed at assessing the seismic impact scenario induced by a single seismic event is illustrated below. The aim is to show a methodological approach able to quantify the resources necessary for emergency planning and organization of operational intervention
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