Seismic risk assessment at the territorial level is now widely recognised as essential for countries with intense seismic activity, such as Italy. Academia is called to give its contribution in order to synergically deepen the knowledge about the various components of this risk, starting from the complex evaluation of vulnerability of the built heritage. In line with this, a mechanics-based seismic fragility model for Italian residential masonry buildings was developed and presented in this paper. This model is based on the classification of the building stock in macro-typologies, defined by age of construction and number of storeys, which being information available at national level, allow simulating damage scenarios and carrying out risk analyses on a territorial scale. The model is developed on the fragility of over 500 buildings, sampled according to national representativeness criteria and analysed through the Vulnus_4.0 software. The calculated fragility functions were extended on the basis of a reference model available in the literature, which provides generic fragilities for the EMS98 vulnerability classes, thus obtaining a fragility model defined on the five EMS98 damage states. Lastly, to assess the reliability of the proposed model, this was used to simulate damage scenarios due to the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. Overall, the comparison between model results and observed damage showed a good fit, proving the model effectiveness.
Recent earthquakes in Italy have significantly affected productive activities, particularly in business interruption (BI) and, consequently, heavy losses for companies, highlighting the need for appropriate seismic risk assessment and management. To estimate seismic risk accurately, both direct (repair/replacement) and indirect (BI) losses must be quantified. Companies’ balance sheets can be used to estimate BI losses, which, however, are very sensitive to business recovery strategies (BRSs) devised by corporate managers after the seismic event. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of BRSs on seismic risk estimates and consequently on structural retrofitting cost-effectiveness. A loss model (including direct and indirect costs and BRS effects) was defined, based on a real-life case study (a biomedical packaging company that was damaged by the 2012 Italian earthquake but recovered soon after) and was used in parametric risk analyses assessing several types of company vulnerabilities and seismic hazards. In areas with low-to-moderate seismicity, seismic retrofitting of existing reinforced concrete factories may be justified or otherwise, depending on whether BRSs are considered or not.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.