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Abstract:Stability tests for cointegrating coefficients are known to have very low power with small to medium sample sizes. In this paper we propose to solve this problem by extending the tests to dependent cointegrated panels through the stationary bootstrap. Simulation evidence shows that the proposed panel tests improve considerably on asymptotic tests applied to individual series. As an empirical illustration we examined investment and saving for a panel of 14 European countries over the 1960-2002 period. While the individual stability tests, contrary to expectations and graphical evidence, in almost all cases do not reject the null of stability, the bootstrap panel tests lead to the more plausible conclusion that the long-run relationship between these two variables is likely to have undergone a break.
JEL: C23, C15
The aim of this paper is to conduct change point analysis of interval-valued time series employing a regression trees approach. In order to deal with such time series we propose to employ a suitable distance measure that takes into account the underlying structure of interval data. Simulation results pertaining to the behavior of the proposed approach as well as an empirical application on a daily sample of air pollutant are provided, that illustrate the practical usefulness of the proposed method
This paper advocates the use of long-memory multivariate GARCH models to forecast spot return volatilities and correlations for crude oil and related products. The findings show from a risk management perspective that the multivariate models incorporating long-memory features outperform the short-memory counterparts in providing the most accurate Value-at-Risk measures. The paper provides useful insights to non-commercial oil traders and other energy markets agents engaged in hedging and risk management operations.
Stability tests for cointegrating coefficients are known to have very low power with small to medium sample sizes. In this paper we propose to solve this problem by extending the tests to dependent cointegrated panels through the stationary bootstrap. Simulation evidence shows that the proposed panel tests improve considerably on asymptotic tests applied to individual series. As an empirical illustration we examined investment and saving for a panel of European countries over the 1960-2002 period. While the individual stability tests, contrary to expectations and graphical evidence, in almost all cases do not reject the null of stability, the bootstrap panel tests lead to the more plausible conclusion that the long-run relationship between these two variables is likely to have undergone a break. --cointegration,stationary bootstrap,parameter stability tests,FM-OLS
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