The papers in this special collection were presented at the seminar "Determinants of Diverging Trends in Mortality", held at MPIDR, Rostock on 19-21 of June, 2002. The seminar was organized by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and the Committee on Emerging Health Threats of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.

From 1965 to 1995, average European male life expectancy -with the European part of the former USSR included among European countries -barely increased. In fact, if one looks at western, northern and southern Europe, life expectancy gained six years, whereas it gained only one year in the countries of central Europe and actually lost six years in the former Soviet Union… France M ESLÉ and Jacques V ALLIN describe in detail the agespecific, sex-specific and cause-specific mortality trends over these 30 years, during which the former Soviet Union and eastern Europe went through many political upheavals. In the nonformerly Communist countries, life expectancy gains were mostly due to the decline of infant mortality (an area where further gains will hereafter be limited) and of the mortality of adults aged 30 to 59 and especially over 60 (half of the gains). In the former USSR, losses affected all ages above 15, among both males and females, and the main culprits are cardiovascular diseases and violent deaths.* Institut national d'études démographiques (INED), Paris.

In the most advanced countries, child mortality and adult mortality under age 65 years have fallen so low that further improvement in life expectancy relies almost completely on the decline of mortality at older ages. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced among women, who are far ahead of men in survival rates. Thus, to project the future of life expectancy, this study focuses on trends in female life expectancy at ages 65 and older. Four countries are selected for this analysis: the United States, Netherlands, France, and Japan. It is particularly interesting to understand why American and Dutch trends in female old-age mortality have been diverging from those in France and Japan for two decades. It is shown here that most of the divergence derives from the fact that decline in cardiovascular mortality is more and more offset by increases in other causes of death in the United States and the Netherlands, while the other two countries are more successful in reducing mortality from all causes at increasingly older ages. This latter phenomenon could represent a new stage of the health transition. Copyright 2006 The Population Council, Inc..

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia were quite comparable in terms of their socioeconomic development. Despite some differences in overall mortality levels, the three former Soviet republics were also very close to each other in terms of directions of mortality trends and age-and cause-specific mortality patterns. After 1991, all the three countries experienced substantial political and social transformations, and the challenges associated with the transition from a socialist to a market economy system. The sudden changes brought numerous problems, such as rapid growth in unemployment, falling standards of living, and growing social and income inequalities. These factors contributed to the significant deterioration of the health situation in all the countries, but the size and the nature of the mortality crisis was different in Belarus than it was in Lithuania and Russia. The marked similarities in socioeconomic and mortality trends in the countries up to 1991 contrast with their notable divergence during the subsequent years. The nature and success of market reforms seems to be the most plausible explanation for these differences. Russia and Lithuania have chosen more radical forms of economic and political transformations, which have led to massive privatization campaigns. The reforms were more sustainable and systematic in

Russian Jews, particularly men, have a large mortality advantage compared with the general Russian population. We consider possible explanations for this advantage using data on 445,000 deaths in Moscow, 1993-95. Log-linear analysis of the distribution of deaths by sex, age, ethnic group, and cause of death reveals a relatively high concentration of endogenous causes and a relatively low concentration of exogenous and behaviourally induced causes among Jews. There is also a significant concentration of deaths from breast cancer among Jewish women. Mortality estimates using the 1994 micro-census population as the denominator reveal an 11-year Russian-Jewish gap in the life expectancy of males at age 20, but only a 2-year life-expectancy gap for women. Only 40 per cent of the Russian-Jewish difference for men, but the entire difference for women, can be eliminated by adjustment for educational differences between the two ethnic groups. Similarities with other Jewish populations and possible explanations are discussed.

Objectives We investigate the reporting of obesity on death certificates in three countries (France, Italy, and the United States) with different levels of prevalence, and we examine which causes are frequently associated with obesity. Methods We use cause-of-death data for all deaths at ages 50–89 in 2010–2011. Since obesity may not be the underlying cause (UC) of death, we compute age- and sex- standardized death rates considering all mentions of obesity (multiple causes or MC). We use cluster analyses to identify patterns of cause-of-death combinations. Results Obesity is selected as UC in no more than 20% of the deaths with a mention of obesity. Mortality levels, whether measured from the UC or the MC, are weakly related to levels of prevalence. Patterns of cause-of-death combinations are similar across the countries. In addition to strong links with cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, we identify several less familiar associations. Conclusions Considering all mentions on the deaths certificates reduces the underestimation of obesity-related mortality based on the UC only. It also enables us to describe the various mortality patterns involving obesity.

While, during several decades, unfavourable trends in mortality were quite similar in Central Europe and in the former USSR, in the most recent years, these two parts of Europe are diverging. In most Central European countries, life expectancy is now increasing mainly thanks to a decline in cardiovascular mortality. Conversely, cardiovascular mortality is still increasing in Russia and Ukraine and its negative impact is reinforced by a worsening of violent deaths and infectious mortality. The situation of Baltic countries is still uncertain but it is not impossible that these countries soon resume with sustainable progress in life expectancy.

Our research highlights several consequences of the conditions under study that could be targeted by public health policy. It also speaks to the existence of differences in diagnosis/certification practices that may explain differences in mortality levels.