In 1918, a strain of influenza A virus caused a human pandemic resulting in the deaths of 50 million people. A century later, with the advent of sequencing technology and corresponding phylogenetic methods, we know much more about the origins, evolution and epidemiology of influenza epidemics. Here we review the history of avian influenza viruses through the lens of their genetic makeup: from their relationship to human pandemic viruses, starting with the 1918 H1N1 strain, through to the highly pathogenic epidemics in birds and zoonoses up to 2018. We describe the genesis of novel influenza A virus strains by reassortment and evolution in wild and domestic bird populations, as well as the role of wild bird migration in their long-range spread. The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, and the zoonotic incursions of avian H5 and H7 viruses into humans over the last couple of decades are also described. The threat of a new avian influenza virus causing a human pandemic is still present today, although control in domestic avian populations can minimize the risk to human health. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.
Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Due to the complexity of the disease epidemiology and the lack of data available, there is a need to use modeling approaches to fill the gaps in our understanding of the virus circulation on this continent. Using a phylogeographic approach, we reconstructed the circulation of FMD virus serotypes A, O, SAT1, and SAT2 in Africa and evaluated the influence of potential environmental and anthropological predictors of virus diffusion. Our results show that the serotypes O and A were introduced to Africa over the last century while the SAT1 and SAT2 serotype have been circulating for at least 400 years in wildlife. Our results also suggest that, outside Southern-Africa, wildlife does not play a role in the maintenance and circulation of the disease within domestic animals. Further, the circulation of serotype O in eastern Africa appears to be facilitated by both indirect transmission through persistence in the environment and anthropological activities such as cattle movements. Evidence for the different epidemiologies of serotypes has been lacking but is essential in developing a modern approach to control of FMD viruses in Africa.
Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa and can lead to important and continuous economic losses for affected countries. Due to the complexity of the disease epidemiology and the lack of data there is a need to use inferential computational approaches to fill the gaps in our understanding of the circulation of FMD virus on this continent. Using a phylogeographic approach we reconstructed the circulation of FMD virus serotypes A, O and SAT2 in Africa and evaluated the influence of potential environmental and anthropological predictors of virus diffusion. Our results show that over the last hundred year the continental circulation of the tree serotypes was mainly driven by livestock trade. Whilst our analyses show that the serotypes A and O were introduced in Africa trough livestock trades, the SAT2 serotype probably originates from African wildlife population. The circulation of serotype O in eastern Africa is impacted by both indirect transmission through persistence in the environment and anthropological activities such as cattle movements.
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