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to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070-2099 period compared to , the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070-2099 vs. 1961-1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing.

This work is dedicated to the study of the climate variability of the Mediterranean Sea, in particular the study of the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) which occurred in the early 1990s. Simulations of the 1961–2000 period have been carried out with an eddy‐permitting Ocean General Circulation Model of the Mediterranean Sea, driven by realistic interannual high‐resolution air‐sea fluxes. Using different databases for the river runoff, Black Sea inflow, and Atlantic thermohaline characteristics at climatological or interannual scales, we assess the effects of the non‐atmospheric hydrological forcings on the simulation of the interannual variations of the Mediterranean circulation. The evolution of the basin‐scale heat content is in very good agreement with the observations (especially in the surface and intermediate layers), while the agreement is lower for the evolution of the salt content. Convection events in the Aegean Sea are noticed in the simulations between 1972 and 1976, in the late 1980s, and around the EMT period. The formation rates of Cretan Deep Water (CDW) are different during these periods, allowing or preventing the spreading of CDW into the eastern Mediterranean. The sequence of the EMT events is well reproduced: the high winter oceanic surface cooling and net evaporation over the Aegean Sea in the early 1990s, the high amount of dense CDW formed during these winters, and then the overflow and the spreading of this CDW in the eastern Mediterranean. Among the preconditioning processes suggested in the literature, we find that changes in the Levantine surface circulation, possibly induced by the presence in the Cretan Passage of anticyclonic eddies and a lasting period with reduced net precipitation over the eastern Mediterranean, lead to an increase of the salt content of the Aegean Sea. Changes in the Black Sea freshwater inflow or in the characteristic of the Atlantic Water entering at the Gibraltar Strait also modify the thermohaline state of the Aegean Sea before the EMT. But, as none of these preconditioning factors has a lasting impact on lowering the vertical stratification of the Aegean Sea, we conclude that concerning the EMT, the major triggering elements are the atmospheric fluxes and winds occurring in winters 1991–1992 and 1992–1993.

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The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hotspots” of the twenty-first century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore, complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean–atmosphere–land–biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in vulnerability–impact–adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (Med-CORDEX) initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community toward the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology, and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high-resolution and coupled regional climate models. The coordination activities and the scientific outcomes of Med-CORDEX can produce an important framework to foster the development of regional Earth system models in several key regions worldwide.

[1] This work is dedicated to the study of the propagation of the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW) formed in the Gulf of Lions during the exceptional winter 2005. A simulation of the 1998-2008 period has been carried out with an eddy-resolving Ocean General Circulation Model of the Mediterranean Sea, driven by interannual high-resolution air-sea fluxes. This study first presents a validation of the recently improved model configuration against satellite observations. Then, we assess the ability of the model to reproduce the particularly intense deep convection event of winter 2005 in the Gulf of Lions. A huge volume of very dense water is formed in the simulation at that time (annual formation rate higher than 3 Sv). The thermohaline characteristics of the new WMDW allow a monitoring of its deep propagation. We identify several deep cyclones as mainly responsible of the fast spreading of the WMDW southwards in the Western Mediterranean. By comparing Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches, we estimate different transport times of the WMDW by these cyclonic eddies and compare them to those deduced from several observations. Finally, we argue that these cyclones favor the propagation of the WMDW thermohaline characteristics toward the Channel of Sardinia and decrease the volume of WMDW which can reach the Strait of Gibraltar.

Open‐sea convection occurring in the northwestern Mediterranean basin (NWMED) is at the origin of the formation of Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW), one of the main Mediterranean water masses. During winter 2004–2005, a spectacular convection event occurred, observed by several experimental oceanographers. It was associated with an exceptionally large convection area and unusually warm and salty WMDW. Explanations were proposed tentatively, relating the unusual characteristics of this event to the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) or to the atmospheric conditions during winter 2004–2005 in the NWMED. They could, however, not be supported until now. Here we used numerical modeling to understand what drove this convection event. The control simulation performed for the period 1961–2006 reproduces correctly the long‐term evolution of the Mediterranean Sea circulation, the EMT, and the NWMED convection event of 2004–2005. Sensitivity simulations are then performed to assess the respective contributions of atmospheric and oceanic conditions to this event. The weakness of the winter buoyancy loss since 1988 in the NWMED prevented strong convection to occur during the 1990s, enabling heat and salt contents to increase in this region. This resulted in the change of WMDW characteristics observed in 2005. The strong buoyancy loss of winter 2004–2005 was responsible for the intensity of the convection observed this winter in terms of depth and volume of newly formed WMDW. The EMT did not fundamentally modify the convection process but potentially doubled this volume by inducing a deepening of the heat and salt maximum that weakened the preconvection stratification.

rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, Abstract Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980-2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007-2013. Then a 1980-2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Med-CORDEX, an international coordinated initiative dedicated to the multi-component regional climate modelling (atmosphere, ocean, land surface, river) of the Mediterranean under the umbrella of HyMeX, CORDEX, and Med-CLIVAR and coordinated by Samuel Somot, Paolo Ruti, Erika Coppola, Gianmaria Sannino, Bodo Ahrens, and Gabriel Jordà. 32013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, ...