21st century climate change scenario for the Mediterranean using a coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate model

Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Déqué, Michel; Crépon, Michel

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.10.003

Cited by 313 publications

(225 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…The amplitude of such pH decrease would, consequently, remain within the observed amplitude of the seasonal variations (Middelboe & Hansen, 2007;Abdelmongy & ElMoselhy, 2015). Similar results were observed in recent global modeling studies (Orr et al, 2005;Somot et al, 2008;Orr, 2011;Palmiéri et al, 2015), which took into account the variations in ocean circulation, seawater temperature, and air-sea CO 2 fluxes.…”

Section: Acidification Estimates Of the Mediterranean Seasupporting

confidence: 90%

Thermodynamic Forecasts of the Mediterranean Sea Acidification

et al. 2016

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Anthropogenic CO2 is a major driver of the present ocean acidification. This latter is threatening the marine ecosystems and has been identified as a major environmental and economic menace. This study aims to forecast from the thermodynamic equations, the acidification variation (ΔpH) of the Mediterranean waters over the next few decades and beyond this century. In order to do so, we calculated and fitted the theoretical values based upon the initial conditions from data of the 2013 MedSeA cruise. These estimates have been performed both for the Western and for the Eastern basins based upon their respective physical (temperature and salinity) and chemical (total alkalinity and total inorganic carbon) properties. The results allow us to point out four tipping points, including one when the Mediterranean Sea waters would become acid (pH<7). In order to provide an associated time scale to the theoretical results, we used two of the IPCC (2007) atmospheric CO2 scenarios. Under the most optimistic scenario of the “Special Report: Emissions Scenarios” (SRES) of the IPCC (2007), the results indicate that in 2100, pH may decrease down to 0.245 in the Western basin and down to 0.242 in the Eastern basin (compared to the pre-industrial pH). Whereas for the most pessimistic SRES scenario of the IPCC (2007), the results for the year 2100, forecast a pH decrease down to 0.462 and 0.457, for the Western and for the Eastern basins, respectively. Acidification, which increased unprecedentedly in recent years, will rise almost similarly in both Mediterranean basins only well after the end of this century. These results further confirm that both basins may become undersaturated (< 1) with respect to calcite and aragonite (at the base of the mixed layer depth), only in the far future (in a few centuries).

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Section: Acidification Estimates Of the Mediterranean Seasupporting

confidence: 90%

Thermodynamic Forecasts of the Mediterranean Sea Acidification

et al. 2016

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“…Table 2 reports the mean alkalinity values at the macro-coastal areas and the annual loads, including the quota of the most relevant rivers. The Dardanelles inputs are considered in the same way but based on earlier information (Somot et al, 2008;CopinMontégut, 1993). Atmospheric CO 2 is set according to the trend shown at the Lampedusa station (Artuso et al, 2009).…”

Section: Model Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal variability of alkalinity in the Mediterranean Sea

2015

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Abstract. The paper provides a basin-scale assessment of the spatiotemporal distribution of alkalinity in the Mediterranean Sea. The assessment is made by integrating the available observations into a 3-D transport-biogeochemical model.The results indicate the presence of complex spatial patterns: a marked west-to-east surface gradient of alkalinity is coupled to secondary negative gradients: (1) from marginal seas (Adriatic and Aegean Sea) to the eastern Mediterranean Sea and (2) from north to south in the western region. The west-east gradient is related to the mixing of Atlantic water entering from the Strait of Gibraltar with the high-alkaline water of the eastern sub-basins, which is correlated to the positive surface flux of evaporation minus precipitation. The north-to-south gradients are related to the terrestrial input and to the input of the Black Sea water through the Dardanelles. In the surface layers, alkalinity has a relevant seasonal cycle (up to 40 µmol kg −1 ) that is driven by physical processes (seasonal cycle of evaporation and vertical mixing) and, to a minor extent, by biological processes. A comparison of alkalinity vs. salinity indicates that different regions present different relationships: in regions of freshwater influence, the two quantities are negatively correlated due to riverine alkalinity input, whereas they are positively correlated in open sea areas of the Mediterranean Sea.

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“…The use of a coupled regional atmosphere-ocean model, as has been done for the problem of anthropogenic climate change (e.g. Somot et al, 2008) could further increase the effective resolution, but the required spin-up times of more than 1000 years for LGM climate are prohibitively expensive. Periodicallysynchronous coupling techniques like the one applied by Mikolajewicz et al (2007a) could help to circumvent this problem.…”

Section: Effect Of Downscalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Mediterranean Ocean climate of the Last Glacial Maximum

Mikolajewicz

2011

Clim. Past

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Abstract.A regional ocean general circulation model of the Mediterranean is used to study the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum. The atmospheric forcing for these simulations has been derived from simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model, which in turn was forced with surface conditions from a coarse resolution earth system model. The model is successful in reproducing the general patterns of reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies with the strongest cooling in summer in the northwestern Mediterranean and weak cooling in the Levantine, although the model underestimates the extent of the summer cooling in the western Mediterranean. However, there is a strong vertical gradient associated with this pattern of summer cooling, which makes the comparison with reconstructions complicated. The exchange with the Atlantic is decreased to roughly one half of its present value, which can be explained by the shallower Strait of Gibraltar as a consequence of lower global sea level. This reduced exchange causes a strong increase of salinity in the Mediterranean in spite of reduced net evaporation.

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21st century climate change scenario for the Mediterranean using a coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate model

Cited by 313 publications

References 32 publications

Thermodynamic Forecasts of the Mediterranean Sea Acidification

Thermodynamic Forecasts of the Mediterranean Sea Acidification

Spatiotemporal variability of alkalinity in the Mediterranean Sea

Modeling Mediterranean Ocean climate of the Last Glacial Maximum

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