We investigate the impact of uncertainty in the metallicity-specific star formation rate over cosmic time on predictions of the rates and masses of double compact object mergers observable through gravitational waves. We find that this uncertainty can change the predicted detectable merger rate by more than an order of magnitude, comparable to contributions from uncertain physical assumptions regarding binary evolution, such as mass transfer efficiency or supernova kicks. We statistically compare the results produced by the COMPAS population synthesis suite against a catalog of gravitational-wave detections from the first two Advanced LIGO and Virgo observing runs. We find that the rate and chirp mass of observed binary black hole mergers can be well matched under our default evolutionary model with a star formation metallicity spread of 0.39 dex around a mean metallicity Z that scales with redshift z as Z = 0.035×10 −0.23z , assuming a star formation rate of 0.01×(1+z) 2.77 /(1+((1+ z)/2.9) 4.7 ) M Mpc −3 yr −1 . Intriguingly, this default model predicts that 80% of the approximately one binary black hole merger per day that will be detectable at design sensitivity will have formed through isolated binary evolution with only dynamically stable mass transfer, i.e., without experiencing a common-envelope event.

Gravitational-wave detections are enabling measurements of the rate of coalescences of binaries composed of two compact objects—neutron stars and/or black holes. The coalescence rate of binaries containing neutron stars is further constrained by electromagnetic observations, including Galactic radio binary pulsars and short gamma-ray bursts. Meanwhile, increasingly sophisticated models of compact objects merging through a variety of evolutionary channels produce a range of theoretically predicted rates. Rapid improvements in instrument sensitivity, along with plans for new and improved surveys, make this an opportune time to summarise the existing observational and theoretical knowledge of compact-binary coalescence rates.

Mergers of black hole-neutron star (BHNS) binaries have now been observed by GW detectors with the recent announcement of GW200105 and GW200115. Such observations not only provide confirmation that these systems exist, but will also give unique insights into the death of massive stars, the evolution of binary systems and their possible association with gamma-ray bursts, r-process enrichment and kilonovae. Here we perform binary population synthesis of isolated BHNS systems in order to present their merger rate and characteristics for ground-based GW observatories. We present the results for 420 different model permutations that explore key uncertainties in our assumptions about massive binary star evolution (e.g. mass transfer, common-envelope evolution, supernovae), and the metallicity-specific star formation rate density, and characterize their relative impacts on our predictions. We find intrinsic local BHNS merger rates spanning $\mathcal {R}_{\rm {m}}^0 \approx$ 4–830 $\, \rm {Gpc}^{-3}$ $\, \rm {yr}^{-1}$ for our full range of assumptions. This encompasses the rate inferred from recent BHNS GW detections, and would yield detection rates of $\mathcal {R}_{\rm {det}} \approx 1$–180$\, \rm {yr}^{-1}$ for a GW network consisting of LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA at design sensitivity. We find that the binary evolution and metallicity-specific star formation rate density each impact the predicted merger rates by order $\mathcal {O}(10)$. We also present predictions for the GW detected BHNS merger properties and find that all 420 model variations predict that $\lesssim 5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of the BHNS mergers have BH masses $m_{\rm {BH}} \gtrsim 18\, \rm {M}_{\odot }$, total masses $m_{\rm {tot}} \gtrsim 20\, \rm {M}_{\odot }$, chirp masses ${\mathcal {M}}_{\rm {c}} \gtrsim 5.5\, \rm {M}_{\odot }$, mass ratios qf ≳ 12 or qf ≲ 2. Moreover, we find that massive NSs with $m_{\rm {NS}} > 2\, \rm {M}_{\odot }$ are expected to be commonly detected in BHNS mergers in almost all our model variations. Finally, a wide range of $\sim 0{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$–$70{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of the BHNS mergers are predicted to eject mass during the merger. Our results highlight the importance of considering variations in binary evolution and cosmological models when predicting, and eventually evaluating, populations of BHNS mergers.

Gravitational-wave observations of double compact object (DCO) mergers are providing new insights into the physics of massive stars and the evolution of binary systems. Making the most of expected near-future observations for understanding stellar physics will rely on comparisons with binary population synthesis models. However, the vast majority of simulated binaries never produce DCOs, which makes calculating such populations computationally inefficient. We present an importance sampling algorithm, STROOPWAFEL, that improves the computational efficiency of population studies of rare events, by focusing the simulation around regions of the initial parameter space found to produce outputs of interest. We implement the algorithm in the binary population synthesis code COMPAS, and compare the efficiency of our implementation to the standard method of Monte Carlo sampling from the birth probability distributions. STROOPWAFEL finds ∼25-200 times more DCO mergers than the standard sampling method with the same simulation size, and so speeds up simulations by up to two orders of magnitude. Finding more DCO mergers automatically maps the parameter space with far higher resolution than when using the traditional sampling. This increase in efficiency also leads to a decrease of a factor ∼3-10 in statistical sampling uncertainty for the predictions from the simulations. This is particularly notable for the distribution functions of observable quantities such as the black hole and neutron star chirp mass distribution, including in the tails of the distribution functions where predictions using standard sampling can be dominated by sampling noise.

Binaries comprised of a neutron star (NS) and a black hole (BH) have so far eluded observations as pulsars and with gravitational waves (GWs). We model the formation and evolution of these NS+BH binaries-including pulsar evolution-using the binary population synthesis code COMPAS. We predict the presence of a total of 50-2000 binaries containing a pulsar and a BH (PSR+BHs) in the Galactic field. We find the population observable by the next-generation of radio telescopes, represented by the SKA and MeerKAT, current (LIGO/Virgo) and future (LISA) GW detectors. We conclude that the SKA will observe 1-80 PSR+BHs, with 0-4 binaries containing millisecond pulsars. MeerKAT is expected to observe 0-40 PSR+BH systems. Future radio detections of NS+BHs will constrain uncertain binary evolution processes such as BH natal kicks. We show that systems in which the NS formed first (NSBH) can be distinguished from those where the BH formed first (BHNS) by their pulsar and binary properties. We find 40 per cent of the LIGO/Virgo observed NS+BHs from a Milky-Way like field population will have a chirp mass ≥3.0 M⊙. We estimate the spin distributions of NS+BHs with two models for the spins of BHs. The remnants of BHNS mergers will have a spin of ∼0.4, whilst NSBH merger remnants can have a spin of ∼0.6 or ∼0.9 depending on the model for BH spins. We estimate that approximately 25-1400 PSR+BHs will be radio alive whilst emitting GWs in the LISA frequency band, raising the possibility of joint observation by the SKA and LISA.

The theory for single stellar evolution predicts a gap in the mass distribution of black holes (BHs) between approximately 45 and 130  M , the so-called "pair-instability mass gap." We examine whether BHs can pollute the gap after accreting from a stellar companion. To this end, we simulate the evolution of isolated binaries using a population synthesis code, where we allow for super-Eddington accretion. Under our most extreme assumptions, we find that at most about 2% of all merging binary BH systems contains a BH with a mass in the pair-instability mass gap, and we find that less than 0.5% of the merging systems has a total mass larger than 90  M . We find no merging binary BH systems with a total mass exceeding 100  M . We compare our results to predictions from several dynamical pathways to pair-instability mass gap events and discuss the distinguishable features. We conclude that the classical isolated binary formation scenario will not significantly contribute to the pollution of the pair-instability mass gap. The robustness of the predicted mass gap for the isolated binary channel is promising for the prospective of placing constraints on (i) the relative contribution of different formation channels, (ii) the physics of the progenitors including nuclear reaction rates, and, tentatively, (iii) the Hubble parameter.Unified Astronomy Thesaurus concepts: Compact binary stars (283); Black holes (162); Accretion (14); Gravitational wave sources (677); High energy astrophysics (739 ); Binary stars (154)

For the first ∼3 yrs after the binary neutron star merger event GW 170817, the radio and X-ray radiation has been dominated by emission from a structured relativistic off-axis jet propagating into a low-density medium with n < 0.01 cm−3. We report on observational evidence for an excess of X-ray emission at δt > 900 days after the merger. With L x ≈ 5 × 1038 erg s−1 at 1234 days, the recently detected X-ray emission represents a ≥3.2σ (Gaussian equivalent) deviation from the universal post-jet-break model that best fits the multiwavelength afterglow at earlier times. In the context of JetFit afterglow models, current data represent a departure with statistical significance ≥3.1σ, depending on the fireball collimation, with the most realistic models showing excesses at the level of ≥3.7σ. A lack of detectable 3 GHz radio emission suggests a harder broadband spectrum than the jet afterglow. These properties are consistent with the emergence of a new emission component such as synchrotron radiation from a mildly relativistic shock generated by the expanding merger ejecta, i.e., a kilonova afterglow. In this context, we present a set of ab initio numerical relativity binary neutron star (BNS) merger simulations that show that an X-ray excess supports the presence of a high-velocity tail in the merger ejecta, and argues against the prompt collapse of the merger remnant into a black hole. Radiation from accretion processes on the compact-object remnant represents a viable alternative. Neither a kilonova afterglow nor accretion-powered emission have been observed before, as detections of BNS mergers at this phase of evolution are unprecedented.

Gravitational-wave detectors are starting to reveal the redshift evolution of the binary black hole (BBH) merger rate, R BBH(z). We make predictions for R BBH(z) as a function of black hole mass for systems originating from isolated binaries. To this end, we investigate correlations between the delay time and black hole mass by means of the suite of binary population synthesis simulations, COMPAS. We distinguish two channels: the common envelope (CE), and the stable Roche-lobe overflow (RLOF) channel, characterized by whether the system has experienced a common envelope or not. We find that the CE channel preferentially produces BHs with masses below about 30 M ⊙ and short delay times (t delay ≲ 1 Gyr), while the stable RLOF channel primarily forms systems with BH masses above 30 M ⊙ and long delay times (t delay ≳ 1 Gyr). We provide a new fit for the metallicity-dependent specific star formation rate density based on the Illustris TNG simulations, and use this to convert the delay time distributions into a prediction of R BBH(z). This leads to a distinct redshift evolution of R BBH(z) for high and low primary BH masses. We furthermore find that, at high redshift, R BBH(z) is dominated by the CE channel, while at low redshift, it contains a large contribution (∼40%) from the stable RLOF channel. Our results predict that, for increasing redshifts, BBHs with component masses above 30 M ⊙ will become increasingly scarce relative to less massive BBH systems. Evidence of this distinct evolution of R BBH(z) for different BH masses can be tested with future detectors.