IMPORTANCE Despite progress toward reducing global incidence, leprosy control remains a challenge in low-and middle-income countries. OBJECTIVE To estimate new case detection rates of leprosy among household contacts of patients with previously diagnosed leprosy and to investigate its associated risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This population-based cohort study included families registered in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort linked with nationwide registries of leprosy; data were collected from January 1, 2007, through December 31, 2014. Household contacts of patients with a previous diagnosis of leprosy from each household unit were followed up from the time of detection of the primary case to the time of detection of a subsequent case or until December 31, 2014. Data analysis was performed from May to December 2018. EXPOSURES Clinical characteristics of the primary case and sociodemographic factors of the household contact. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incidence of leprosy, estimated as the new case detection rate of leprosy per 100 000 household contacts at risk (person-years at risk). The association between occurrence of a subsequent leprosy case and the exposure risk factors was assessed using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regressions allowing for state-and household-specific random effects. RESULTS Among 42 725 household contacts (22 449 [52.5%] female; mean [SD] age, 22.4 [18.5] years) of 17 876 patients detected with leprosy, the new case detection rate of leprosy was 636.3 (95% CI, 594.4-681.1) per 100 000 person-years at risk overall and 521.9 (95% CI, 466.3-584.1) per 100 000 person-years at risk among children younger than 15 years. Household contacts of patients with multibacillary leprosy had higher odds of developing leprosy (adjusted odds ratio [OR] , 1.48; 95% CI, 1.17-1.88), and the odds increased among contacts aged 50 years or older (adjusted OR, 3.11; 95% CI, 2.03-4.76). Leprosy detection was negatively associated with illiterate or preschool educational level (adjusted OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.38-0.92). For children, the odds were increased among boys (adjusted OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.20-2.42). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The findings in this Brazilian population-based cohort study suggest that the household contacts of patients with leprosy may have increased risk of leprosy, especially in households with existing multibacillary cases and older contacts. Public health interventions, such as contact screening, that specifically target this population appear to be needed.
Background Reducing poverty and improving access to health care are two of the most effective actions to decrease maternal mortality, and conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes act on both. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of one of the world’s largest CCT (the Brazilian Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP)) on maternal mortality during a period of 11 years. Methods The study had an ecological longitudinal design and used all 2548 Brazilian municipalities with vital statistics of adequate quality during 2004–2014. BFP municipal coverage was classified into four levels, from low to consolidated, and its duration effects were measured using the average municipal coverage of previous years. We used negative binomial multivariable regression models with fixed-effects specifications, adjusted for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and healthcare variables. Results BFP was significantly associated with reductions of maternal mortality proportionally to its levels of coverage and years of implementation, with a rate ratio (RR) reaching 0.88 (95%CI 0.81–0.95), 0.84 (0.75–0.96) and 0.83 (0.71–0.99) for intermediate, high and consolidated BFP coverage over the previous 11 years. The BFP duration effect was stronger among young mothers (RR 0.77; 95%CI 0.67–0.96). BFP was also associated with reductions in the proportion of pregnant women with no prenatal visits (RR 0.73; 95%CI 0.69–0.77), reductions in hospital case-fatality rate for delivery (RR 0.78; 95%CI 0.66–0.94) and increases in the proportion of deliveries in hospital (RR 1.05; 95%CI 1.04–1.07). Conclusion Our findings show that a consolidated and durable CCT coverage could decrease maternal mortality, and these long-term effects are stronger among poor mothers exposed to CCT during their childhood and adolescence, suggesting a CCT inter-generational effect. Sustained CCT coverage could reduce health inequalities and contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal 3.1, and should be preserved during the current global economic crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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