We study how the recent changes in the structure of the US banking market affect the banks’ behavior in relation to competition, risk, and profit. Using the Herfindhal-Hirschman (HHI) and Lerner indices, we find a general increase in the concentration and market power of banks since the recent crisis period. Thus, we also consider whether bank-specific or general economic conditions have a greater impact on the competition, risk, and profit. The results support the view that changes in the market’s structure while positively impacting profit and competition do not lead to increased risk. However, the banks’ market share does lead to increased risk, albeit not for the largest banks. The results also support the view that banks can increase some elements of risk as well as profit during an economic expansion. However, an overriding feature of the results is the difference in the conditioning factors across the size strata and time. This difference leads to the conclusion that there is no simple relation between the market’s structure and competition and risk
This paper examines the relationship between stock prices and commodity prices and whether this can be used to forecast stock returns. As both prices are linked to expected future economic performance they should exhibit a long-run relationship. Moreover, changes in sentiment towards commodity investing may affect the nature of the response to disequilibrium. Results support cointegration between stock and commodity prices, while Bai-Perron tests identify breaks in the forecast regression. Forecasts are computed using a standard fixed (static) in-sample/out-of-sample approach and by both recursive and rolling regressions, which incorporate the effects of changing forecast parameter values. A range of model specifications and forecast metrics are used. The historical mean model outperforms the forecast models in both the static and recursive approaches. However, in the rolling forecasts, those models that incorporate information from the long-run stock price/commodity price relationship outperform both the historical mean and other forecast models. Of note, the historical mean still performs relatively well compared to standard forecast models that include the dividend yield and short-term interest rates but not the stock/commodity price ratio.
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