Metapopulation persistence depends on connectivity between habitat patches. While emphasis has been placed on the spatial dynamics of connectivity, much less has been placed on its short‐term temporal dynamics. In many terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, however, transient (short‐term) changes in connectivity occur as habitat patches are connected and disconnected due, for example, to climatic or hydrological variability. We evaluated the implications of transient connectivity using a network‐based metapopulation model and a series of scenarios representing temporal changes in connectivity. The transient loss of connectivity can influence metapopulation persistence, and more strongly autocorrelated temporal dynamics affect metapopulation persistence more severely. Given that many ecosystems experience short‐term and temporary loss of habitat connectivity, it is important that these dynamics are adequately represented in metapopulation models; failing to do so may yield overly optimistic‐estimates of metapopulation persistence in fragmented landscapes.
The dietary breadth of invaders can influence their success, and having a wide dietary niche can facilitate the spread and survival of invaders under a variety of resource scenarios. The western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) is a globally distributed freshwater invasive fish. The spread of G. affinis is associated with agricultural land use, although the trophic role it plays in degraded systems is not well understood. We analysed the invertebrate community in 11 stream reaches in the North Island of New Zealand, in catchments spanning a range (45%-90%) of agricultural land use to determine how prey availability changes with land use. We then analysed the gut contents of 400 G. affinis from the 11 sites to determine how diet varied with prey availability and ontogeny. Invertebrate communities varied along the agricultural land-use gradient, both in regard to taxonomic richness and community composition.G. affinis consumed a wide variety of food items with invertebrates being the most dominant, in particular Culicidae, Copepods and amphipods were the most commonly consumed invertebrates. There was also an ontogenetic diet shift from microinvertebrates (Cladocera, Copepods and diatoms) to larger invertebrates, including Culicidae, amphipods and terrestrial invertebrates. G. affinis are capable of consuming a wide variety of prey in agricultural streams; their preferred prey are generally pollution-tolerant taxa commonly found in degraded streams. Having a large level of dietary plasticity coupled with preferring prey that are often associated with degraded systems likely facilitates to the spread of one of the most widely distributed freshwater invasive fish. K E Y W O R D Sagriculture, diet plasticity, Gambusia affinis, invasive species | 823 LEE Et aL.
Some extinctions have obvious drivers (e.g. over‐harvesting), while others can be less obvious and arise from multiple interacting factors. The extinction of the New Zealand grayling (Prototroctes oxyrhynchus) has been blamed on over‐fishing and predation by introduced trout, but these explanations fail to account for the species disappearance from isolated, uninvaded rivers. We investigated if source–sink dynamics, facilitated by P. oxyrhynchus's amphidromous dispersal habit, could account for the species’ rapid extinction. We created a database of P. oxyrhynchus sightings by surveying newspapers dating back to 1839, along with a review of traditional scientific literature. We used this database to update P. oxyrhynchus's known distribution map and inform sighting models to predict P. oxyrhynchus's extinction date. Finally, we implemented a meta‐population model to explore how source–sink dynamics could interact with off‐take (over‐fishing or predation) to drive extinction. Prototroctes oxyrhynchus was found across New Zealand, except the north of the North Island. Based on sightings methods, the earliest predicted extinction date was 1924, although the species may have persisted until 1972, later than previous estimates have suggested. In the absence of source–sink dynamics, relatively high levels of off‐take were sustainable (up to 30% per generation). When the species was modelled as a panmictic meta‐population including 5% sink habitats, the sustainable off‐take rate was reduced to as low as 5% per generation. Prototroctes oxyrhynchus was a widespread, abundant species that underwent rapid declines and ultimately went extinct. Previous attempts to explain this extinction have failed to account for the species extinction from isolated, pristine rivers. Our modelling shows that treating the species as a panmictic metapopulation and including source–sink dynamics rapidly increases the probability of extinction. We suggest that source–sink dynamics may be an important aspect of the population dynamics of amphidromous species and should be considered when managing taxa with similar dispersal habits.
Biodiversity assets often require conservation management, which, in turn, necessitates decisions about which ecosystem, community or species should be prioritised to receive resources. Population viability analysis (PVA) uses a suite of quantitative methods to estimate the likelihood of population decline and extinction for a given species, and can be used to assess a population's status, providing useful information to decision-makers. In New Zealand, a range of taxa have been analysed using the PVA approach, but the scope of its implementation has not previously been reviewed. We compiled a database of 78 published PVAs for New Zealand indigenous fauna and flora, along with details of the species considered, the data used to parametrise the model, and the technical details of their implementation. We assessed the taxa and threat status of the species for which PVA were conducted relative to the distribution of taxa across threat classes in the New Zealand Threat Classification System database. There were clear biases in the species selected for analysis, notably an over-representation of birds and threatened species in general, and an under-representation of invertebrates and plants. Model parameterisation and implementation were often not reported in a transparent or standardised way, which hinders model communication and reconstruction. To maximise the benefit of PVAs, we suggest that more attention should be given to the ecosystem-level importance of species, and to species whose threat status is changing rapidly or are not yet threatened. More clearly describing the parameterisation, underlying assumptions and implementation of PVAs will help to better contextualise their results and support reproducible ecological science and decision-making.
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