We make several contributions to understanding the socio-demographic ramifications of the COVID-19 epidemic and policy responses on employment outcomes of subgroups in the U.S., benchmarked against two previous recessions. First, monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) data show greater declines in employment in April and May 2020 (relative to February) for Hispanics, younger workers, and those with high school degrees and some college. Between April and May, all the demographic subgroups considered regained some employment. While in most cases the re-employment in May was proportional to the employment drop occurred through April, we show that this was not the case for Blacks. Second, we show that job loss was larger in occupations that require more interpersonal contact and that cannot be performed remotely. Third, we see that consistent with theories of occupational segregation, the extent to which workers of certain demographic groups sort (pre-COVID-19) into occupations and industries can explain a sizeable portion of the gender, race, and ethnic gaps in recent unemployment. However, there remain substantial unexplained differences in employment losses across groups even in these detailed decompositions. We also demonstrate the importance of tracking workers who report having a job but are absent from work, in addition to tracking employed and unemployed workers. We conclude with a discussion of policy priorities and future research needs implied by the disparities in labor market losses from the COVID-19 crisis that we identify.

This paper examines the determinants of social distancing during the COVID-19 epidemic. We classify state and local government actions, and we study multiple proxies for social distancing based on data from smart devices. Mobility fell substantially in all states, even ones that have not adopted major distancing mandates. There is little evidence, for example, that stay-at-home mandates induced distancing. In contrast, early and information-focused actions have had bigger effects. Event studies show that first case announcements, emergency declarations, and school closures reduced mobility by 1-5% after 5 days and 7-45% after 20 days. Between March 1 and April 11, average time spent at home grew from 9.1 hours to 13.9 hours. We find, for example, that without state emergency declarations, event study estimates imply that hours at home would have been 11.3 hours in April, suggesting that 55% of the growth comes from emergency declarations and 45% comes from secular (non-policy) trends. State and local government actions induced changes in mobility on top of a large response across all states to the prevailing knowledge of public health risks. Early state policies conveyed information about the epidemic, suggesting that even the policy response mainly operates through a voluntary channel.

The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. At least one co-author has disclosed a financial relationship of potential relevance for this research. Further information is available online at http://www.nber.org/papers/w27280.ack NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

Bruce Weinberg gratefully acknowledges support from UL1 TR002733. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

At least one co-author has disclosed a financial relationship of potential relevance for this research. Further information is available online at http://www.nber.org/papers/w27419.ack NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.