Tracking Public and Private Responses to the COVID-19 Epidemic: Evidence from State and Local Government Actions

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of social distancing during the COVID-19 epidemic. We classify state and local government actions, and we study multiple proxies for social distancing based on data from smart devices. Mobility fell substantially in all states, even ones that have not adopted major distancing mandates. There is little evidence, for example, that stay-at-home mandates induced distancing. In contrast, early and information-focused actions have had bigger effects. Event studies show that first case announcements, emergency declarations, and school closures reduced mobility by 1-5% after 5 days and 7-45% after 20 days. Between March 1 and April 11, average time spent at home grew from 9.1 hours to 13.9 hours. We find, for example, that without state emergency declarations, event study estimates imply that hours at home would have been 11.3 hours in April, suggesting that 55% of the growth comes from emergency declarations and 45% comes from secular (non-policy) trends. State and local government actions induced changes in mobility on top of a large response across all states to the prevailing knowledge of public health risks. Early state policies conveyed information about the epidemic, suggesting that even the policy response mainly operates through a voluntary channel.

Determinants of Disparities in Covid-19 Job Losses

“…Even states that had not adopted restrictive policies experienced large reductions in mobility. However, Gupta et al (2020) also find evidence that early and information-focused state policies did lead to larger reductions in mobility. These reductions in time outside the house suggest that many people are experiencing work disruptions, and that those who can work remotely may be more able to maintain employment during the crisis.…”

“…Large sectors of the economy -transportation, hospitality, and tourism -essentially shut down their normal operations during this time. During the shutdown phase, state governments implemented a range of social distancing mandates (Gupta et al 2020;Goolsbee and Syverson 2020;Bartik et al 2020;Coibion et al 2020). In May, both the public and private sectors began to take steps to reopen some economic activities.…”

“…The literature on labor market impacts of the epidemics is evolving rapidly. Using cell phone data on mobility and interaction patterns, Gupta et al (2020) document a massive, nationwide decline in multiple measures of mobility outside the home. Even states that had not adopted restrictive policies experienced large reductions in mobility.…”

Is the Cure Worse than the Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID-19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.

“…School closures are one of the earliest mitigation policies (Gupta et al, 2020). They typically started at the district level before becoming a state-wide policy.…”

Paid sick-leave and physical mobility: Evidence from the United States during a pandemic

“…People living in areas with more Republicans engage in less social distancing behaviors that residents in other areas (Allcott et al 2020;Andersen 2020). Gupta et al (2020) estimate that a state or county policy change or informational event each reduces mobility by 2% to 8%, with policies of a more information nature explaining in total up to half of the declines in mobility experienced from early March to early April 2020. Friedson et al (2020) show that California's stay-at-home order -the first such policy in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic -was effective in encouraging people to remain in their homes.…”