No abstract

Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km 2 in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area.

Abstract. This paper deals with the use of time-series of High-Resolution Digital Elevation Models (HR DEMs) obtained from photogrammetry and airborne LiDAR coupled with aerial photos, to analyse the magnitude of recently reactivated large scale earth slides -earth flows located in the northern Apennines of Italy. The landslides underwent complete reactivation between 2001 and 2006, causing civil protection emergencies. With the final aim to support hazard assessment and the planning of mitigation measures, highresolution DEMs are used to identify, quantify and visualize depletion and accumulation in the slope resulting from the reactivation of the mass movements. This information allows to quantify mass wasting, i.e. the amount of landslide material that is wasted during reactivation events due to stream erosion along the slope and at its bottom, resulting in sediment discharge into the local fluvial system, and to assess the total volumetric magnitude of the events. By quantifying and visualising elevation changes at the slope scale, results are also a valuable support for the comprehension of geomorphological processes acting behind the evolution of the analysed landslides.

Landslides of the lateral spreading type, involving brittle geological units overlying ductile terrains, are a common occurrence in the sandstone and limestone plateaux of the northern Apennines of Italy. The edges of these plateaux are often the location of rapid landslide phenomena, such as rock slides, rock falls and topples. In this paper we present a back-analysis of a recent landslide (February 2014), involving the north-eastern sector of the San Leo rock slab (northern Apennines, Emilia-Romagna Region) which is a representative example of this type of phenomena. The aquifer hosted in the fractured slab, due to its relatively higher secondary permeability in comparison to the lower clayey units leads to the development of perennial and ephemeral springs at the contact between the two units. The related piping erosion phenomena, together with slope processes in the clayshales have led to the progressive undermining of the slab, eventually predisposing large-scale landslides. Stability analyses were conducted coupling Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) and Distinct Element Methods (DEMs). TLS point clouds were analyzed to determine the pre-and post-failure geometry, the extension of the detachment area and the joint network characteristics. The block dimensions in the landslide deposit were mapped and used to infer the spacing of the discontinuities for insertion into the numerical model. Threedimensional distinct element simulations were conducted, with and without undermining of the rock slab. The analyses allowed an assessment of the role of the undermining, together with the presence of an almost vertical joint set, striking sub-parallel to the cliff orientation, on the development of the slope instability processes. Based on the TLS and on the numerical simulation results, an interpretation of the landslide mechanism is proposed.

The version presented here may differ from the published version. If citing, you are advised to consult the published version for pagination, volume/issue and date of publication An investigation on the development of toppling phenomena at the edge of fractured rock plateaux using a numerical modelling approach Margherita Cecilia Spreafico (a) , Federico Cervi (a) , Mirko Francioni (b) , Doug Stead (c) , Lisa Borgatti (a) a.