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Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km 2 in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area.

Abstract. This paper deals with the use of time-series of High-Resolution Digital Elevation Models (HR DEMs) obtained from photogrammetry and airborne LiDAR coupled with aerial photos, to analyse the magnitude of recently reactivated large scale earth slides -earth flows located in the northern Apennines of Italy. The landslides underwent complete reactivation between 2001 and 2006, causing civil protection emergencies. With the final aim to support hazard assessment and the planning of mitigation measures, highresolution DEMs are used to identify, quantify and visualize depletion and accumulation in the slope resulting from the reactivation of the mass movements. This information allows to quantify mass wasting, i.e. the amount of landslide material that is wasted during reactivation events due to stream erosion along the slope and at its bottom, resulting in sediment discharge into the local fluvial system, and to assess the total volumetric magnitude of the events. By quantifying and visualising elevation changes at the slope scale, results are also a valuable support for the comprehension of geomorphological processes acting behind the evolution of the analysed landslides.