The paper presented is a review of the available epidemiological data on the situation in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region, and looks at HIV prevalence in specific population groups. At the end of 2001, HIV remains an important health issue in the LAC region. Twelve countries in the region have an estimated prevalence of 1% or higher among pregnant women. Most of the LAC countries with generalized epidemics are located in the Caribbean basin. In the past decade there has been a slow but continuous increase in HIV prevalence rates among the general population and vulnerable groups, although information in some countries is limited. In many countries, the highest HIV prevalence among vulnerable groups is found among men who have sex with men. HIV infections related to injecting drug use are concentrated in the countries of the Southern Cone and Brazil. HIV is well anchored in the region, concentrated in vulnerable groups in most countries, but with an increasing presence in some countries in the general population. There is a need to improve data collection and introduce new tools to monitor behavior trends and the impact of interventions.
Estimates of HIV/AIDS prevalence are important, because they are the primary measure of the current state of the epidemic in a country. How estimates of HIV/AIDS are made depends on the level of the epidemic. For estimates of HIV/AIDS prevalence in low-level and concentrated epidemics it is necessary to disaggregate the total adult population into sub-groups based on the relative risk of infection. For each group, the major issues and questions are: identifying risk groups, estimating the size of the populations, and estimating HIV prevalence in these groups. The greatest difficulty in making estimates of prevalence in low-level and concentrated epidemics is often establishing the size of various populations. Because of the uncertainty inherent in making an estimate of population size for these groups at high risk, low and high estimates are used. In order to demonstrate the method the case of Honduras was used. The most recent HIV prevalence data and the estimates of population sizes were applied. It was estimated that Honduras, which has a total population of 6,575,000 (United Nations Population Division sources), has approximately 55,000 adults living with HIV/AIDS, with a range of uncertainty between 30,000 and 80,000. Estimations of the burden of HIV is a continuous process and should be updated on a regular basis according to the most recent and relevant information available.
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