Human influence on climate has been detected in surface air temperature, sea level pressure, free atmospheric temperature, tropopause height and ocean heat content. Human-induced changes have not, however, previously been detected in precipitation at the global scale, partly because changes in precipitation in different regions cancel each other out and thereby reduce the strength of the global average signal. Models suggest that anthropogenic forcing should have caused a small increase in global mean precipitation and a latitudinal redistribution of precipitation, increasing precipitation at high latitudes, decreasing precipitation at sub-tropical latitudes, and possibly changing the distribution of precipitation within the tropics by shifting the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Here we compare observed changes in land precipitation during the twentieth century averaged over latitudinal bands with changes simulated by fourteen climate models. We show that anthropogenic forcing has had a detectable influence on observed changes in average precipitation within latitudinal bands, and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability or natural forcing. We estimate that anthropogenic forcing contributed significantly to observed increases in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, drying in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and tropics, and moistening in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics and deep tropics. The observed changes, which are larger than estimated from model simulations, may have already had significant effects on ecosystems, agriculture and human health in regions that are sensitive to changes in precipitation, such as the Sahel.

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We present results of simulations of the climate of the newly discovered planet Proxima Centauri B, performed using the Met Office Unified Model (UM). We examine the responses of both an "Earth-like" atmosphere and simplified nitrogen and trace carbon dioxide atmosphere to the radiation likely received by Proxima Centauri B. Additionally, we explore the effects of orbital eccentricity on the planetary conditions using a range of eccentricities guided by the observational constraints. Overall, our results are in agreement with previous studies in suggesting Proxima Centauri B may well have surface temperatures conducive to the presence of liquid water. Moreover, we have expanded the parameter regime over which the planet may support liquid water to higher values of eccentricity ( > ∼ 0.1) and lower incident fluxes (881.7 W m −2 ) than previous work. This increased parameter space arises because of the low sensitivity of the planet to changes in stellar flux, a consequence of the stellar spectrum and orbital configuration. However, we also find interesting differences from previous simulations, such as cooler mean surface temperatures for the tidally-locked case. Finally, we have produced high-resolution planetary emission and reflectance spectra, and highlight signatures of gases vital to the evolution of complex life on Earth (oxygen, ozone and carbon dioxide).

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Using a 3D general circulation model (GCM), we investigate the sensitivity of the climate of tidally locked Earthlike exoplanets, Trappist-1e and Proxima Centauri b, to the choice of a convection parameterization. Compared to a mass-flux convection parameterization, a simplified convection adjustment parameterization leads to a >60% decrease of the cloud albedo, increasing the mean dayside temperature by . The representation of convection also affects the atmospheric conditions of the night side, via a change in planetary-scale wave patterns. As a result, using the convection adjustment scheme makes the nightside cold traps warmer by 17–36 K for the planets in our simulations. The day–night thermal contrast is sensitive to the representation of convection in 3D GCM simulations, so caution should be taken when interpreting emission phase curves. The choice of convection treatment, however, does not alter the simulated climate enough to result in a departure from habitable conditions, at least for the atmospheric composition and planetary parameters used in our study. The near-surface conditions both in the Trappist-1e and Proxima b cases remain temperate, allowing for an active water cycle. We further advance our analysis using high-resolution model experiments, in which atmospheric convection is simulated explicitly. Our results suggest that in a hypothetical global convection-permitting simulation, the surface temperature contrast would be higher than in the coarse-resolution simulations with parameterized convection. In other words, models with parameterized convection may overestimate the inter-hemispheric heat redistribution efficiency.

[1] We investigate the causes of temperature dependent changes in global precipitation in contemporary General Circulation Models (GCMs) subjected to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentration. By analyzing the energy budget of the troposphere, we find that changes are dominated by processes robustly simulated by GCMs. Importantly, shortwave cloud feedbacks, whose uncertainty is largely responsible for the wide range of GCM temperature climate sensitivities, are shown to have little effect. This is because these mainly arise from the scattering of shortwave radiation that has little impact on the tropospheric heating that controls precipitation. Hence, we expect that the range of simulated precipitation sensitivities to temperature will not change greatly in future GCMs, despite the recent suggestion that satellite observations indicate that GCM precipitation changes are significantly in error. Citation: Lambert, F. H., and M. J. Webb (2008), Dependency of global mean precipitation on surface temperature, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L16706,

[1] Optimal detection analyses have been used to determine the causes of past global warming, leading to the conclusion by the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC that ''most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations''. To date however, these analyses have not taken full account of uncertainty in the modelled patterns of climate response due to differences in basic model formulation. To address this current ''perfect model'' assumption, we extend the optimal detection method to include, simultaneously, output from more than one GCM by introducing inter-model variance as an extra uncertainty. Applying the new analysis to three climate models we find that the effects of both anthropogenic and natural factors are detected. We find that greenhouse gas forcing would very likely have resulted in greater warming than observed during the past half century if there had not been an offsetting cooling from aerosols and other forcings.

Abstract. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalise on the relative abundance of palaeoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.