OJ287 is a quasi-periodic quasar with roughly 12 year optical cycles. It displays prominent outbursts that are predictable in a binary black hole model. The model predicted a major optical outburst in 2015 December. We found that the outburst did occur within the expected time range, peaking on 2015 December 5 at magnitude 12.9 in the optical R-band. Based on Swift/XRT satellite measurements and optical polarization data, we find that it included a major thermal component. Its timing provides an accurate estimate for the spin of the primary black hole, 0.313 0.01 c =  . The present outburst also confirms the established general relativistic properties of the system such as the loss of orbital energy to gravitational radiation at the 2% accuracy level, and it opens up the possibility of testing the black hole no-hair theorem with 10% accuracy during the present decade.

Results from regular monitoring of relativistic compact binaries like PSR 1913+16 are consistent with the dominant (quadrupole) order emission of gravitational waves (GWs). We show that observations associated with the binary black hole (BBH) central engine of blazar OJ287 demand the inclusion of gravitational radiation reaction effects beyond the quadrupolar order. It turns out that even the effects of certain hereditary contributions to GW emission are required to predict impact flare timings of OJ287. We develop an approach that incorporates this effect into the BBH model for OJ287. This allows us to demonstrate an excellent agreement between the observed impact flare timings and those predicted from ten orbital cycles of the BBH central engine model. The deduced rate of orbital period decay is nine orders of magnitude higher than the observed rate in PSR 1913+16, demonstrating again the relativistic nature of OJ287ʼs central engine. Finally, we argue that precise timing of the predicted 2019 impact flare should allow a test of the celebrated black hole "no-hair theorem" at the 10% level.

OpenBU http://open.bu.edu Astronomy BU Open Access Articles 2018-08-20 Stochastic modeling of multiwavelength variability of the classical BL Lac Object OJ287...

We present updated orbital elements for the Wolf–Rayet (WR) binary WR 140 (HD 193793; WC7pd  + O5.5fc). The new orbital elements were derived using previously published measurements along with 160 new radial velocity measurements across the 2016 periastron passage of WR 140. Additionally, four new measurements of the orbital astrometry were collected with the CHARA Array. With these measurements, we derive stellar masses of $M_{\rm WR} = 10.31\pm 0.45 \, \mathrm{M}_\odot$ and $M_{\rm O} = 29.27\pm 1.14 \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$. We also include a discussion of the evolutionary history of this system from the Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis model grid to show that this WR star likely formed primarily through mass-loss in the stellar winds, with only a moderate amount of mass lost or transferred through binary interactions.

Transit events of extrasolar planets offer a wealth of information for planetary characterization. However, for many known targets, the uncertainty of their predicted transit windows prohibits an accurate scheduling of follow-up observations. In this work, we refine the ephemerides of 21 hot Jupiter exoplanets with the largest timing uncertainties. We collected 120 professional and amateur transit light curves of the targets of interest, observed with a range of telescopes of 0.3m to 2.2m, and analyzed them along with the timing information of the planets discovery papers. In the case of WASP-117b, we measured a timing deviation compared to the known ephemeris of about 3.5 hours, and for HAT-P-29b and HAT-P-31b the deviation amounted to about 2 hours and more. For all targets, the new ephemeris predicts transit timings with uncertainties of less than 6 minutes in the year 2018 and less than 13 minutes until 2025. Thus, our results allow for an accurate scheduling of follow-up observations in the next decade.