We report detection of a very bright X-ray–UV–optical outburst of OJ 287 in 2020 April–June, the second brightest since the beginning of our Swift multiyear monitoring in late 2015. It is shown that the outburst is predominantly powered by jet emission. Optical–UV–X-rays are closely correlated, and the low-energy part of the XMM–Newton spectrum displays an exceptionally soft emission component consistent with a synchrotron origin. A much harder X-ray power-law component (Γx = 2.4, still relatively steep when compared to expectations from inverse Compton models) is detected out to 70 keV by NuSTAR. We find evidence for reprocessing around the Fe region, consistent with an absorption line. If confirmed, it implies matter in outflow at ∼0.1c. The multiyear Swift light curve shows multiple episodes of flaring or dipping with a total amplitude of variability of a factor of 10 in X-rays, and 15 in the optical–UV. The 2020 outburst observations are consistent with an after-flare predicted by the binary black hole model of OJ 287, where the disc impact of the secondary black hole triggers time-delayed accretion and jet activity of the primary black hole.

Results from regular monitoring of relativistic compact binaries like PSR 1913+16 are consistent with the dominant (quadrupole) order emission of gravitational waves (GWs). We show that observations associated with the binary black hole (BBH) central engine of blazar OJ287 demand the inclusion of gravitational radiation reaction effects beyond the quadrupolar order. It turns out that even the effects of certain hereditary contributions to GW emission are required to predict impact flare timings of OJ287. We develop an approach that incorporates this effect into the BBH model for OJ287. This allows us to demonstrate an excellent agreement between the observed impact flare timings and those predicted from ten orbital cycles of the BBH central engine model. The deduced rate of orbital period decay is nine orders of magnitude higher than the observed rate in PSR 1913+16, demonstrating again the relativistic nature of OJ287ʼs central engine. Finally, we argue that precise timing of the predicted 2019 impact flare should allow a test of the celebrated black hole "no-hair theorem" at the 10% level.

The bright blazar OJ 287 is the best-known candidate for hosting a supermassive black hole binary system. It inspirals due to the emission of nanohertz gravitational waves (GWs). Observations of historical and predicted quasi-periodic high-brightness flares in its century-long optical lightcurve, allow us to determine the orbital parameters associated with the binary black hole (BBH) central engine. In contrast, the radio jet of OJ 287 has been covered with Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations for only about 30 years and these observations reveal that the position angle (PA) of the jet exhibits temporal variations at both millimetre and centimetre wavelengths. Here we associate the observed PA variations in OJ 287 with the precession of its radio jet. In our model, the evolution of the jet direction can be associated either with the primary black hole (BH) spin evolution or with the precession of the angular momentum direction of the inner region of the accretion disc. Our Bayesian analysis shows that the BBH central engine model, primarily developed from optical observations, can also broadly explain the observed temporal variations in the radio jet of OJ 287 at frequencies of 86, 43, and 15 GHz. Ongoing Global mm-VLBI Array (GMVA) observations of OJ 287 have the potential to verify our predictions for the evolution of its 86 GHz PA values. Additionally, thanks to the extremely high angular resolution that the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) can provide, we explore the possibility to test our BBH model through the detection of the jet in the secondary black hole .

Successful observations of the seven predicted bremsstrahlung flares from the unique bright blazar OJ 287 firmly point to the presence of a nanohertz gravitational wave (GW) emitting supermassive black hole (SMBH) binary central engine. We present arguments for the continued monitoring of the source in several electromagnetic windows to firmly establish various details of the SMBH binary central engine description for OJ 287. In this article, we explore what more can be known about this system, particularly with regard to accretion and outflows from its two accretion disks. We mainly concentrate on the expected impact of the secondary black hole on the disk of the primary on 3 December 2021 and the resulting electromagnetic signals in the following years. We also predict the times of exceptional fades, and outline their usefulness in the study of the host galaxy. A spectral survey has been carried out, and spectral lines from the secondary were searched for but were not found. The jet of the secondary has been studied and proposals to discover it in future VLBI observations are mentioned. In conclusion, the binary black hole model explains a large number of observations of different kinds in OJ 287. Carefully timed future observations will be able to provide further details of its central engine. Such multi-wavelength and multidisciplinary efforts will be required to pursue multi-messenger nanohertz GW astronomy with OJ 287 in the coming decades.

The bright blazar OJ 287 is the best-known candidate for hosting a nanohertz gravitational wave (GW) emitting supermassive binary black hole (SMBBH) in the present observable universe. The binary black hole (BBH) central engine model, proposed by Lehto and Valtonen in 1996, was influenced by the two distinct periodicities inferred from the optical light curve of OJ 287. The current improved model employs an accurate general relativistic description to track the trajectory of the secondary black hole (BH) which is crucial to predict the inherent impact flares of OJ 287. The successful observations of three predicted impact flares open up the possibility of using this BBH system to test general relativity in a hitherto unexplored strong field regime. Additionally, we briefly describe an on-going effort to interpret observations of OJ 287 in a Bayesian framework.

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Binary black hole (BH) central engine description for the unique blazar OJ287 predicted that the next secondary BH impact-induced bremsstrahlung flare should peak on 2019 July 31. This prediction was based on detailed general relativistic modeling of the secondary BH trajectory around the primary BH and its accretion disk. The expected flare was termed the Eddington flare to commemorate the centennial celebrations of now-famous solar eclipse observations to test general relativity by Sir Arthur Eddington. We analyze the multi-epoch Spitzer observations of the expected flare between 2019 July 31 and 2019 September 6, as well as baseline observations during 2019 February-March. Observed Spitzer flux density variations during the predicted outburst time display a strong similarity with the observed optical pericenter flare from OJ287 during 2007 September. The predicted flare appears comparable to the 2007 flare after subtracting the expected higher base-level Spitzer flux densities at 3.55 and 4.49 μm compared to the optical R-band. Comparing the 2019 and 2007 outburst lightcurves and the previously calculated predictions, we find that the Eddington flare arrived within 4 hr of the predicted time. Our Spitzer observations are well consistent with the presence of a nano-Hertz gravitational-wave emitting spinning massive binary BH that inspirals along a general relativistic eccentric orbit in OJ287. These multi-epoch Spitzer observations provide a parametric constraint on the celebrated BH no-hair theorem. Unified Astronomy Thesaurus concepts: Gravitation (661); Black hole physics (159); BL Lacertae objects (158)

In the binary black hole model of OJ 287 the secondary black hole orbits a much more massive primary, and impacts on the primary accretion disk at predictable times. We update the parameters of the disk, the viscosity α and the mass accretion rateṁ. We find α = 0.26 ± 0.1 andṁ = 0.08 ± 0.04 in Eddington units. The former value is consistent with Coroniti (1981) and the latter with Marscher and Jorstad (2011). Predictions are made for the 2019 July 30 superflare in OJ 287. We expect that it will take place simultaneously at the Spitzer infrared channels as well as in the optical and that therefore the timing of the flare in optical can be accurately determined from Spitzer observations. We also discuss in detail the light curve of the 2015 flare, and find that the radiating volume has regions where bremsstrahlung dominates as well as regions that radiate primarily in synchrotron radiation. The former region produces the unpolarised first flare while the latter region gives rise to a highly polarized second flare.