We present the results of a 10.5‐yr, volume‐limited (28‐Mpc) search for supernova (SN) progenitor stars. In doing so we compile all SNe discovered within this volume (132, of which 27 per cent are Type Ia) and determine the relative rates of each subtype from literature studies. The core‐collapse SNe break down into 59 per cent II‐P and 29 per cent Ib/c, with the remainder being IIb (5 per cent), IIn (4 per cent) and II‐L (3 per cent). There have been 20 II‐P SNe with high‐quality optical or near‐infrared pre‐explosion images that allow a meaningful search for the progenitor stars. In five cases they are clearly red supergiants, one case is unconstrained, two fall on compact coeval star clusters and the other twelve have no progenitor detected. We review and update all the available data for the host galaxies and SN environments (distance, metallicity and extinction) and determine masses and upper mass estimates for these 20 progenitor stars using the stars stellar evolutionary code and a single consistent homogeneous method. A maximum likelihood calculation suggests that the minimum stellar mass for a Type II‐P to form is mmin= 8.5+1−1.5 M⊙ and the maximum mass for II‐P progenitors is mmax= 16.5 ± 1.5 M⊙, assuming a Salpeter initial mass function holds for the progenitor population (in the range Γ=−1.35+0.3−0.7). The minimum mass is consistent with current estimates for the upper limit to white dwarf progenitor masses, but the maximum mass does not appear consistent with massive star populations in Local Group galaxies. Red supergiants in the Local Group have masses up to 25 M⊙ and the minimum mass to produce a Wolf–Rayet star in single star evolution (between solar and LMC metallicity) is similarly 25–30 M⊙. The reason we have not detected any high‐mass red supergiant progenitors above 17 M⊙ is unclear, but we estimate that it is statistically significant at 2.4σ confidence. Two simple reasons for this could be that we have systematically underestimated the progenitor masses due to dust extinction or that stars between 17–25 M⊙ produce other kinds of SNe which are not II‐P. We discuss these possibilities and find that neither provides a satisfactory solution. We term this discrepancy the ‘red supergiant problem’ and speculate that these stars could have core masses high enough to form black holes and SNe which are too faint to have been detected. We compare the 56Ni masses ejected in the SNe to the progenitor mass estimates and find that low‐luminosity SNe with low 56Ni production are most likely to arise from explosions of low‐mass progenitors near the mass threshold that can produce a core‐collapse.

The Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis (BPASS) suite of binary stellar evolution models and synthetic stellar populations provides a framework for the physically motivated analysis of both the integrated light from distant stellar populations and the detailed properties of those nearby. We present a new version 2.1 data release of these models, detailing the methodology by which BPASS incorporates binary mass transfer and its effect on stellar evolution pathways, as well as the construction of simple stellar populations. We demonstrate key tests of the latest BPASS model suite demonstrating its ability to reproduce the colours and derived properties of resolved stellar populations, including wellconstrained eclipsing binaries. We consider observational constraints on the ratio of massive star types and the distribution of stellar remnant masses. We describe the identification of supernova progenitors in our models, and demonstrate a good agreement to the properties of observed progenitors. We also test our models against photometric and spectroscopic observations of unresolved stellar populations, both in the local and distant Universe, finding that binary models provide a self-consistent explanation for observed galaxy properties across a broad redshift range. Finally, we carefully describe the limitations of our models, and areas where we expect to see significant improvement in future versions.

We compare our latest single and binary stellar model results from the Cambridge stars code to several sets of observations. We examine four stellar population ratios: the number of blue to red supergiants, the number of Wolf–Rayet stars to O supergiants, the number of red supergiants to Wolf–Rayet stars and the relative number of Wolf–Rayet subtypes, WC to WN stars. These four ratios provide a quantitative measure of nuclear burning lifetimes and the importance of mass loss during various stages of the stars' lifetimes. In addition, we compare our models to the relative rate of Type Ib/c to Type II supernovae to measure the amount of mass lost over the entire lives of all stars. We find reasonable agreement between the observationally inferred values and our predicted values by mixing single and binary star populations. However, there is evidence that extra mass loss is required to improve the agreement further, to reduce the number of red supergiants and increase the number of Wolf–Rayet stars.