Проведён анализ пространственного варьирования уровня теплообеспеченности на территории Крымского полуострова и построена цифровая крупномасштабная картографическая модель распределения суммы активных температур воздуха выше 10°С, адаптированная для целей выбора оптимальных участков под закладку виноградников. Проанализирована динамика теплообеспеченности Крымского полуострова с 1985 по 2018 гг. и на её основании методом экстраполяции составлен прогноз изменения данного показателя до 2050 г. Разработаны цифровые крупномасштабные карты прогноза распределения теплообеспеченности территории Крыма на 2035 и 2050 гг. Ключевые слова: агроэкология, климатические карты, сумма активных температур, Крымский полуостров, виноград, прогноз.

The climatic and orographic features of the Sevastopol region are the basis for the development of viticulture, winemaking and obtaining a wide range of high-quality wines. Viticulture is a specialization of agriculture in the Sevastopol region. Observed and predicted climate changes lead to a shift in favorable zones for growing grapes. The amount of precipitation is a key parameter, along with air temperature, for obtaining high quality grapes, and later wine. The water requirements of grapes vary with the season and phase of plant development. The article assesses the possible changes in the conditions of moisture conditions in the Sevastopol region for the grapes growing. The work uses data from numerical calculations of global climate models of the CMIP6 project under an unfavorable scenario of greenhouse gas concentrations SSP5-8.5. The assessment was carried out using two agroclimatic indices - the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient and the dryness index, by the middle and end of the 21st century. According to the predicted values of agroclimatic indices, by the middle and the end of the century, the Sevastopol region will remain in the zone where the cultivation of grapes will be possible without irrigation. The results obtained showed the likelihood of an increase in the aridity of the region in future periods, especially towards the end of the century, which will entail additional stress for the grapes. Adaptation measures such as selection of drought-tolerant grape varieties, changes in tillage systems, and placement of vineyards on northern slopes will be required to minimize unfavorable conditions.

The harvest and quality of vineyards are determined by the climatic conditions of the region. Viticulture is a promising avenue in the agricultural sector of the Sevastopol region. In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the orographic and climatic conditions and microclimate zoning to optimize the placement of vineyards. Meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) for the period 1985–2018 were used to assess heat and hydration conditions and to calculate agroclimatic indices for a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of the observed climate change on viticulture. The observed upward trends in heliothermic indices and downward trends in precipitation change the conditions and cause a shift in grape-suitable zones. Based on heat supply and frost resistance, microclimatic zoning of the territory was carried out and 13 ecotopes were identified, for each of the grape varieties that were recommended. Our study indicates that the agroclimatic conditions of the Sevastopol region make it possible to grow grape varieties from very early to late ripening.

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Viticulture is a sector very sensitive to climate change. Observed and expected changes in temperature and precipitation can change the conditions necessary for viticulture in a particular area or make these conditions totally unsuitable for viticulture. Precipitation (water availability) and air temperature are the key meteorological parameters regulating the quality of grapes and wine. We used an ensemble of model data from the CMIP6 project to evaluate all possible changes in water availability in the area around Sevastopol by the middle and the end of the 21st century for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The hydrothermal coefficient and dryness index have been used to evaluate the water availability. The results have shown that, based on the indices values, viticulture in the study region will be possible without irrigation, but, at the same time, the vines may experience a certain level of dryness.