The Indian Ocean dipole is a prominent mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability, affecting the lives of millions of people in Indian Ocean rim countries. In its positive phase, sea surface temperatures are lower than normal off the Sumatra-Java coast, but higher in the western tropical Indian Ocean. During the extreme positive-IOD (pIOD) events of 1961, 1994 and 1997, the eastern cooling strengthened and extended westward along the equatorial Indian Ocean through strong reversal of both the mean westerly winds and the associated eastward-flowing upper ocean currents. This created anomalously dry conditions from the eastern to the central Indian Ocean along the Equator and atmospheric convergence farther west, leading to catastrophic floods in eastern tropical African countries but devastating droughts in eastern Indian Ocean rim countries. Despite these serious consequences, the response of pIOD events to greenhouse warming is unknown. Here, using an ensemble of climate models forced by a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we project that the frequency of extreme pIOD events will increase by almost a factor of three, from one event every 17.3 years over the twentieth century to one event every 6.3 years over the twenty-first century. We find that a mean state change--with weakening of both equatorial westerly winds and eastward oceanic currents in association with a faster warming in the western than the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean--facilitates more frequent occurrences of wind and oceanic current reversal. This leads to more frequent extreme pIOD events, suggesting an increasing frequency of extreme climate and weather events in regions affected by the pIOD.

Multi‐decadal weakening trend of the equatorial Pacific easterly winds since 1960 has reversed after 1993. The trend reversal has induced cooling (shallow thermocline) trend in the equatorial western Pacific before 1993, followed by a warming (deep thermocline) trend from 1993 to the present. All available atmospheric reanalysis products corroborate the trend reversal during the two multi‐decadal periods. The magnitudes of the multi‐decadal trends of the easterly winds, however, differ among the reanalysis products. The trend reversals of regional ocean circulations are assessed using linear regressions between wind and transport anomalies in an eddy‐permitting numerical model, suggesting that since 1993 the Indonesian Throughflow and the Leeuwin Current transports have also reversed their multi‐decadal weakening trends.

International audienceNatural modes of variability centred in the tropics, such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, are a significant source of interannual climate variability across the globe. Future climate warming could alter these modes of variability. For example, with the warming projected for the end of the twenty-first century, the mean climate of the tropical Indian Ocean is expected to change considerably. These changes have the potential to affect the Indian Ocean Dipole, currently characterized by an alternation of anomalous cooling in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and warming in the west in a positive dipole event, and the reverse pattern for negative events. The amplitude of positive events is generally greater than that of negative events. Mean climate warming in austral spring is expected to lead to stronger easterly winds just south of the Equator, faster warming of sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean compared with the eastern basin, and a shoaling equatorial thermocline. The mean climate conditions that result from these changes more closely resemble a positive dipole state. However, defined relative to the mean state at any given time, the overall frequency of events is not projected to change [mdash] but we expect a reduction in the difference in amplitude between positive and negative dipole events

The recent observed expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool is robustly attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases.

Extreme ocean surface wave heights significantly affect coastal structures and offshore activities and impact many vulnerable populations of low-lying islands. Therefore, better understanding of ocean wave height variability plays an important role in potentially reducing risk in such regions. In this study, global impacts of natural climate variability such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on extreme significant wave height (SWH) are analyzed using ERA-Interim (1980–2014) and ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C; 1952–2010) datasets for December–February (DJF). The nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) analysis is used to determine the influence of natural climate variability on DJF maxima of SWH (Hmax), wind speed (Wmax), and mean sea level pressure gradient amplitude (Gmax). The major ENSO influence on Hmax is found over the northeastern North Pacific (NP), with increases during El Niño and decreases during La Niña, and its counter responses are observed in coastal regions of the western NP, which are consistently observed in both Wmax and Gmax responses. The Hmax response to the PDO occurs over similar regions in the NP as those associated with ENSO but with much weaker amplitude. Composite analysis of different ENSO and PDO phase combinations reveals stronger (weaker) influences when both variability modes are of the same (opposite) phase. Furthermore, significant NAO influence on Hmax, Wmax, and Gmax is observed throughout Icelandic and Azores regions in relation to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. Overall, the response of extreme SWH to natural climate variability modes is consistent with seasonal mean responses.

The Australian decade-long ''Millennium Drought'' broke in the summer of 2010/11 and was considered the most severe drought since instrumental records began in the 1900s. A crucial question is whether climate change played a role in inducing the rainfall deficit. The climate modes in question include the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), affecting southern Australia in winter and spring; the southern annular mode (SAM) with an opposing influence on southern Australia in winter to that in spring; and El Niño-Southern Oscillation, affecting northern and eastern Australia in most seasons and southeastern Australia in spring through its coherence with the IOD. Furthermore, the poleward edge of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell, which indicates the position of the subtropical dry zone, has possible implications for recent rainfall declines in autumn. Using observations and simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), it is shown that the drought over southwest Western Australia is partly attributable to a long-term upward SAM trend, which contributed to half of the winter rainfall reduction in this region. For southeast Australia, models simulate weak trends in the pertinent climate modes. In particular, they severely underestimate the observed poleward expansion of the subtropical dry zone and associated impacts. Thus, although climate models generally suggest that Australia's Millennium Drought was mostly due to multidecadal variability, some late-twentieth-century changes in climate modes that influence regional rainfall are partially attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse warming.

An individual-based model, incorporating outputs of a data-assimilating hydrodynamic model, was developed to investigate the role of ocean circulation in the recruitment processes of western rock lobster ( Panulirus cygnus ) during its 9- to 11-month larval phase off the west coast of Australia. During austral summer, strong northward alongshore winds aid the offshore movement of early-stage model larvae from midshelf hatching sites into open ocean; during austral winter, eastward flows that feed the enhanced Leeuwin Current facilitate onshore movement of late-stage larvae towards nearshore habitats. Stokes drift induced by swells from the Southern Ocean is critical to retain larvae off the west coast. Diurnal migration and temperature-dependent growth are also important. Model larvae hatched in late spring – early summer grow faster because of longer exposure to warm summer temperature, which allows them to be transported towards the coast by the strong onshore flows in winter and reduces their natural mortality. Preliminary source–sink relationship indicates that the population was well mixed off the coast, with higher likelihood of settlement success from hatching sites in the north, mostly due to higher surface temperature. Weighted with the breeding stock distribution, the area between 27.5°S and 29.5°S, including the Abrolhos Islands, is the most important hatching area to the success of settlement.

Precipitation is often organized along coherent lines of low-level convergence, which at longer time and space scales form well-known convergence zones over the world’s oceans. Here, an automated, objective method is used to identify instantaneous low-level convergence lines in reanalysis data and calculate their frequency for the period 1979–2013. Identified convergence lines are combined with precipitation observations to assess the extent to which precipitation around the globe is associated with convergence lines in the lower troposphere. It is shown that a large percentage of precipitation (between 65% and 90%) over the tropical oceans is associated with such convergence lines, with large regional variations of up to 30% throughout the year, especially in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Over land, the annual-mean proportion of precipitation associated with convergence lines ranges between 30% and 60%, and the lowest proportions (less than 15%) associated with convergence lines occur on the eastern flank of the subtropical highs. Overall, much greater precipitation is associated with long coherent lines (greater than 300 km in length) than with shorter fragmented lines (less than 300 km), and the majority of precipitation associated with shorter lines occurs over land. The proportion of precipitation not associated with any convergence line primarily occurs where both precipitation and frequency of convergence lines are low. The high temporal and spatial resolution of the climatology constructed also enables an examination of the diurnal cycle in the relationship between convergence lines and precipitation. Here an example is provided over the tropical Maritime Continent region.